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The Big West Champion UC Santa Barbara Gauchos come in as a 14 seed and making their seventh NCAA Tournament appearance. They will face off against the Baylor Bears out of the Big 12, who hope to repeat the 2021 tournament. It is time to continue our March Madness odds series with a UCSB-Baylor prediction and pick.
The Gauchos come in with a defensively-minded squad, ranking 49th in the nation in scoring defense. This defense will have to be on point though to stop the Baylor offense, which averages 77.2 points per game on the year. The Gauchos are hoping to win their second-ever NCAA Tournament game this year. In 1990 they were the nine sees and beat Houston to get to the second round. Baylor has made the last four tournaments and won their first-round game in each of them.
Here are the UCSB-Baylor March Madness odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
March Madness Odds: UCSB-Baylor Odds
UCSB: +10.5 (-110)
Baylor: -10.5 (-110)
Over: 142.5 (-115)
Under: 142.5 (-105)
How To Watch UCSB vs. Baylor
TV: TNT
Stream: NCAA March Madness App
Time: 1:30 PM ET/ 10:30 AM PT
*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why UCSB Could Cover The Spread
The offense for UCSB can put up some points to help keep them in this game. They finished the year ranked 165th in scoring offense at 72.2 points per game. The scoring, combined with a defense that ranked 49th in scoring defense, gave them a scoring differential of 6.6 points per game. This offense was based on efficiency. They were not a high-scoring three-point offense, as they were ranked 328th in three pointers made per game. All the while, they still had 1.001 points per possession this year, which was top 40 in college basketball. This may be why KenPom gives this offense an adjusted offensive efficiency rating that sits 72nd in the nation.
The defense statically was solid this year. As noted, they were 49th in scoring defense on the season. They forced 12.38 turnovers per game, which placed them 187th in the nation. The downfall of this defense may be their ability to defend the three. From three-point range, opponents hit 34.3% of their shots, which was good for 222nd in Division I. This should be of major concern as Baylor was top 40 in three-point percentage on the year.
If UCSB cannot stop the three-pointer, they are going to have to attempt to run with Baylor. That task starts with Ajay Mitchell. Mitchell led the Gauchos with 16.4 points per game and 5.2 assists per game. That made Mitchell the top assist man in the conference, and fifth in points per game. Mitchell also snagged 1.4 steals per game, and if he can get a few more of those, he can keep UCSB in it.
Why Baylor Could Cover The Spread
Baylor is the number two rated offensive efficiency team according to KenPom. They score 77.2 points per game, which places them 54th in the nation. The impressive offensive numbers come from beyond the arc. They were 14th in three-pointers per game, averaging 9.7 three-pointers made per game. That alone is nearly thirty points of offense, and enough to cause any team trouble. Even more, it is 2.9 more per game than they give up. There is a nine-point swing in favor of the Bears just behind the three-point line.
The defense on this team can struggle, though. They gave up 70.3 points per game, which was 184th in the nation. They also gave up .911 points per possession, which was 165th in the nation. An efficient offense can capitalize on that scenario, and if Baylor gets slowed down from three at all, there is an easy spot to take them out of the tournament. Luckily for Baylor, UCSB has not shown they have to tools to do that.
Baylor is going to send out Keyton George and Adam Flagler out against the Owls, and tell them to shoot. George averages 15.8 points per game, and when he is not scoring, his 2.8 assists per game aid in getting Flagler his average of 2.6 three-pointers per game. Inside, they have Jalen Bridges, who comes away with 5.8 rebounds per game. Bridges is a big man at 6’8” and 225 pounds, but Kennesaw State does have the size on their team to work with that, especially with Demond Robinson. Overall, as long as Baylor plays their style of game, and does not go cold from the field, they should win this one.
Final UCSB-Baylor Prediction & Pick
Baylor is a great three-point shooting team, and Kennesaw State struggled to guard from deep. They also do not have any three-point shooters of their own that can compete with Baylor. Unless Baylor slows themselves down, there seems to be little shot for the Owls to pull the upset.
Final UCSB-Baylor Prediction & Pick: Baylor -10.5 (-110)
