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The MLB season continues as the Seattle Mariners look to pick up the win on the road in Cincinnati when they take on the Reds in the second game of their series on Tuesday. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Mariners-Reds prediction and pick.
Mariners-Reds Projected Starters
Luis Castillo vs. Nick Lodolo
Luis Castillo – (1-1) with a 2.12 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP
Last Start: Castillo didn't factor into the decision Tuesday against the Astros after allowing five hits and two walks in five scoreless innings, striking out six.
2025 Road Splits: Castillo will be making his first start on the road this season when he travels to Cincinnati to take on the Reds.
Nick Lodolo – (2-1) with a 0.96 ERA and a 0.00 WHIP
Last Start: Lodolo picked up the win Tuesday, scattering three hits and a walk over six scoreless innings in a victory over the Giants. He struck out three.
2025 Home Splits: Lodolo picked up his first win of the season at home, where he gave up two earned runs on five hits through six innings against the Giants.
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Mariners-Reds Odds
Seattle Mariners: -1.5 (+136)
Moneyline: -118
Cincinnati Reds: +1.5 (+100)
Moneyline: +100
Over: 8 (-114)
Under: 8 (-106)
How To Watch Mariners vs. Reds
Article Continues Below
Time: 6:40 PM ET/3:40 PM PT
TV: MLB.TV
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Why The Mariners Will Cover The Spread/Win
Luis Castillo’s dominance on the mound gives the Seattle Mariners a clear advantage in Tuesday’s matchup against the Cincinnati Reds. Castillo, who boasts a 2.12 ERA and 1.12 WHIP across his first three starts in 2025, has been effective at limiting hard contact while utilizing his elite fastball-slider combination to stymie hitters. His ability to pitch deep into games, as evidenced by his seven-inning performance against Detroit earlier this month, will be crucial against a Reds offense that has struggled mightily to produce runs. The Mariners’ offense, while inconsistent, has shown an ability to generate traffic on the bases through walks and stolen bases, ranking among league leaders in both categories. This patient approach could wear down Lodolo and create scoring opportunities.
Nick Lodolo, despite his potential, has yet to find his rhythm this season. Through three starts, he has just eight strikeouts over 18 2/3 innings and has relied heavily on inducing ground balls with his sinker and changeup. While this approach limits big hits, it leaves him vulnerable to prolonged innings if opponents can string together singles and walks. The Reds’ offensive woes compound the problem; they rank near the bottom of MLB in OPS and have gone scoreless for stretches as long as 35 consecutive innings this season. With Castillo’s ability to dominate right-handed hitters and Seattle’s knack for manufacturing runs through small ball, the Mariners are well-positioned to secure a victory in this interleague showdown.
Why The Reds Will Cover The Spread/Win
Nick Lodolo’s strong start to 2025 gives the Cincinnati Reds a chance to outduel Luis Castillo and the Seattle Mariners on Tuesday. Lodolo has been remarkably efficient, posting an impressive 0.96 ERA and allowing just one walk across 18 2/3 innings this season. His ability to induce ground balls with his sinker and changeup has been key, as evidenced by his 11 ground-ball outs in his first start. Facing a Mariners lineup that ranks near the bottom of MLB in batting average (.220) and slugging percentage (.376), Lodolo’s command and ability to limit hard contact make him well-suited to neutralize Seattle’s offense. Additionally, Cincinnati’s improved defense—ranking third in outs above average, provides further support for Lodolo’s pitching style.
While Luis Castillo has been solid with a 2.12 ERA, his inconsistency against left-handed hitters remains a concern. The Reds’ lineup, though struggling overall, has shown flashes of promise with players like Elly De La Cruz and Matt McLain capable of exploiting Castillo’s vulnerabilities. Moreover, Great American Ball Park’s hitter-friendly dimensions could amplify any mistakes Castillo makes. The Reds’ pitching staff has also been a bright spot, ranking near the top in WHIP (0.96) and ERA (3.06), which could help them hold Seattle’s offense in check. If Lodolo continues his efficient approach and Cincinnati capitalizes on scoring opportunities against Castillo, the Reds are well-positioned to secure a win in this matchup.
Final Mariners-Reds Prediction & Pick
Tuesday’s matchup between the Cincinnati Reds and Seattle Mariners features a compelling pitching duel between Nick Lodolo and Luis Castillo. Lodolo has been dominant early in 2025, with a 0.96 ERA and elite ground-ball rates, making him a tough challenge for Seattle’s inconsistent offense. Castillo, however, brings ace-level stuff and experience, giving the Mariners an edge on the mound. The Reds’ young lineup, led by Elly De La Cruz and Matt McLain, has the potential to capitalize on Castillo’s occasional struggles against left-handed hitters. In a tightly contested game, expect Lodolo’s efficiency and Cincinnati’s timely hitting to secure a narrow Reds victory.
Final Mariners-Reds Prediction & Pick: Cincinnati Reds (+100), Under 8 (-106)
