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The New York Mets will meet the Milwaukee Brewers for Game 1 of the NL Wild Card Series on Tuesday at American Family Field. We're ready for the playoff madness as we share our MLB odds series and make a Mets-Brewers NL Wild Card Game 1 prediction and pick.
Mets-Brewers NL Wild Card Game 1 Projected Starters
Luis Severino vs. Freddy Peralta
Luis Severino (11-7) with a 3.91 ERA
Last Start: Severino was supposed to start Game 2 of the doubleheader. Instead, the Mets held him out for the wildcard when they advanced. Now, he likely will start this one after going just four innings in his last outing, allowing four earned runs on seven hits while striking out five in a loss to the Atlanta Braves.
2024 Road Splits: Severino is 4-5 with a 5.00 ERA over 15 road starts.
Freddy Peralta (11-9) with a 3.69 ERA
Last Start: Peralta went 5 1/3 innings in his final regular-season start, allowing two earned runs on two hits while striking out seven and walking two in a loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates.
2024 Home Splits: Peralta has struggled at home, going 6-5 with a 4.01 ERA over 17 starts this season.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Mets-Brewers NL Wild Card Game 1 Odds
New York Mets: +1.5 (-200)
Moneyline: +108
Milwaukee Brewers: -1.5 (+164)
Moneyline: -126
Over: 7.5 (-105)
Under: 7.5 (-115)
How to Watch Mets vs. Brewers NL Wild Card Game 1
Time: 5:32 PM ET/2:32 PM PT
TV: ESPN
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Article Continues Below
Why The Mets Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Mets are back in the postseason for the second time in three seasons after a dramatic come-from-behind win in the first game of the doubleheader against the Atlanta Braves. Now, they hope to go further than they have been since 2015 when they last made a World Series appearance. While some legends like David Ortiz don't believe the Mets can win, they are here and will attempt to get things going against an experienced team.
Pete Alonso is the man in Queens, coming in with a batting average of .300 with three hits, one home run, one RBI, and two runs over three playoff games. Likewise, Francisco Lindor will be critical in this series, hitting .257 with 27 hits, six home runs, 13 RBIs, and 13 runs over 28 postseason games. J.D. Martinez will look to continue his playoff success. So far, he is batting .294 with 35 hits, 10 home runs, 31 RBIs, and 15 runs over 33 playoff games.
Severino likely goes in this game. Unfortunately, he has not done well in the postseason, going 1-4 with a 5.15 ERA over 11 games in his career. When Severino exits the game, he will turn it over to an experienced bullpen with plenty of potential. Edwin Diaz has pitched two scoreless innings in his postseason career, and Ryne Stanek is 3-0 with a 2.70 ERA in 23 career postseason games.
Why The Brewers Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Brewers are making their second straight playoff appearance and sixth in seven seasons. However, they have not made much of an impact since 2018, when they reached the National League Championship Series. Things have not been good for them over the last few years. Recently, they fell to the Arizona Diamondbacks last season, losing 2-0 in the NL Wild Card. The Brew Crew also lost 3-1 to the Atlanta Braves in the National League Divisional Series in 2021. Therefore, there is a bit of a chip on their shoulders as they finally attempt to clear some hurdles and get some quality hits.
Willy Adames is a quality superstar and one of the best players on this team. However, he has struggled in the postseason. Adames is batting just .220 with two home runs, seven RBIs, and six runs over 32 career postseason games. Thus, the Brewers need a lot more from him. William Contreras also must do more. So far, he is hitting just .222 with four hits and one run over six games. Rhys Hoskins has been equally terrible. Sadly, he is batting just .159 with 11 hits, six home runs, 12 RBIs, and nine runs over 17 playoff games, either hitting it out of the park or doing nothing at all. The really intriguing part of this series will be the first playoff appearance of rookie Jackson Chourio.
Peralta will attempt to get the Brewers a win in Game 1, and must have a quality outing. Substantially, he is 0-1 with a 3.46 ERA over four playoff games. When Peralta exits this game, he will turn it over to the second-best bullpen in baseball. Trevor Megill is the setup man, looking to preserve a lead or a close game. Meanwhile, closer Devin Williams looks to do much better this time around, coming into the postseason with a career 27.00 ERA in one career playoff game.
The Brewers will cover the spread if their hitters can clobber the baseball and drive runners home. Then, they need a great outing from Peralta to set the second-best bullpen up for success.
Final Mets-Brewers NL Wild Card Game 1 Prediction & Pick
The books had the Mets favored in this one early. Then, the line flipped, and now the Brewers are favored. Peralta is the guy to keep an eye on. Unfortunately for the Mets, he will be tough to solve. Also, you must consider the fact that the Mets had to play two games in Atlanta and then travel to Milwaukee. That can take a toll on anyone. Expect the Brewers to find a way to dominate this game from start to finish as they take the first game of this wild card series.
Final Mets-Brewers NL Wild Card Game 1 Prediction & Pick: Milwaukee Brewers: -1.5 (+164)
