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The New York Mets and Arizona Diamondbacks split a four-game series at the end of May, but the stakes will be higher this time. The Diamondbacks hold a four-game lead over the Mets in the wild-card race, meaning a New York series win could shift the trajectory of the National League playoffs. The teams began their series on Tuesday night, with the Diamondbacks riding a six-game winning streak. Their form has put them just three games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers for the National League West lead. The Mets haven't been in as good of form, winning just six of their past ten games. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Mets-Diamondbacks prediction and pick.
Mets-Diamondbacks Projected Starters
Luis Severino vs. Brandon Pfaadt
Luis Severino is 9-6 with a 3.84 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP.
Severino's last start was on the road against the San Diego Padres. He pitched 5 innings with 5 strikeouts, allowing 5 hits, 4 walks, and 1 earned run. It was Severino's second consecutive quality start, as he had 9 scoreless innings against the Miami Marlins in the outing before the Padres game.
Severino hasn't been as good on the road this season, owning a 4-4 record with a 4.63 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP.
Brandon Pfaadt is 8-6 with a 4.08 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP.
Pfaadt's last start was on the road against the Marlins. He pitched 5 1/3 innings with 4 strikeouts, allowing 9 hits, 2 walks, and 4 earned runs. In an odd statistic, the Diamondbacks have won Pfaadt's last five starts, while he allowed 18 earned runs over those outings. The Diamondbacks have given him 7+ support runs in 4 of those 5 starts.
Pfaadt has been a star at home, owning a 5-2 record with a 3.69 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Mets-Diamondbacks Odds
New York Mets: -1.5 (+160)
Moneyline: +102
Arizona Diamondbacks: +1.5 (-194)
Moneyline: -120
Over: 8.5 (-115)
Under: 8.5 (-105)
Article Continues Below
How to Watch Mets vs. Diamondbacks
Time: 9:40 PM ET/6:40 PM PT
TV: SNY, ARID
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why The Mets Will Cover The Spread/Win
This game will be determined by Luis Severino's ability to shut down the surging Arizona offense. Severino had a stellar outing against the Marlins two starts ago, which isn't that impressive, as Miami hasn't been a good offensive team this season. However, his performance against the Padres at the last start makes him believe he can get it done.
Another wildcard is Brandon Pfaadt, who has four victories in his last five starts but has been leaking oil. He is the benefactor of some elite offensive production but could struggle if Severino outduels him in this game.
Why The Diamondbacks Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Diamondbacks have been masking against right-handed pitchers over their last ten games. They are batting .260 with a .372 on-base percentage and 7.7 runs/nine. It's no surprise, as they have four games over their last six where they have scored seven or more runs, giving them 45 total over the winning streak. It took a while for the Diamondbacks bats to wake up, but now that they are, it could make them a favorite to return to the World Series.
Final Mets-Diamondbacks Prediction & Pick
The Diamondbacks have been one of the best offenses in baseball over the past ten games and these teams have some high-octane offensive games when they face each other. Three of the four games at the end of May went over, including two that eclipsed 15 runs. If this is an offensive battle, the Diamondbacks will win, so we'll lean that way and take them on the moneyline.
Final Mets-Diamondbacks Prediction & Pick: Diamondbacks ML (-120)
