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It's Independence Day, as the New York Mets finish their four-game series with the Washington Nationals on Thursday at Nationals Park. We're here to share our MLB odds series, make a Mets-Nationals prediction, and pick while showing you how to watch.
Mets-Nationals Projected Starters
Jose Quintana vs. Jake Irvin
Jose Quintana (3-5) with a 4.57 ERA
Last Start: Quintana struggled in his last outing, lasting just four innings while allowing two earned runs, six hits, striking out seven and walking three in a no-decision against the Houston Astros.
2024 Road Splits: Quintana has struggled on the road, going 2-2 with a 5.63 ERA over eight starts away from Citi Field.
Jake Irvin (6-6) with a 3.03 ERA
Last Start: Irvin dominated in his last start, allowing one earned run (a home run), while striking out five and walking three in a win over the Tampa Bay Rays.
2024 Home Splits: Irvin has struggled at home, going 1-5 with a 4.63 ERA over six starts at Nationals Park.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Mets-Nationals Odds
New York Mets: -1.5 (+136)
Moneyline: -108
Washington Nationals: +1.5 (-164)
Moneyline: -108
Over: 9.5 (-110)
Under: 9.5 (-110)
How to Watch Mets vs. Nationals
Time: 11:05 AM ET/8:05 AM PT
TV: MLB Network
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Mets Will Cover The Spread/Win
After a good stretch of games, the Mets have suddenly found themselves in the playoff race. They entered the day just one game behind the San Diego Padres for the final wildcard spot. Ultimately, much of that has to do with an offense that continues to produce.
The Mets rank eighth in batting average, slugging percentage, and runs. Additionally, New York ranks sixth in on-base percentage and fourth in home runs. Many of their players have taken that next step to help their team.
Francisco Lindor has fleshed that power, batting .249 with 14 home runs, 41 RBIs, and 56 runs. Meanwhile, J.D. Martinez has remained strong, hitting .278 with 10 home runs, 37 RBIs, and 22 runs. Pete Alonso entered the day ranking fifth in home runs. He is batting .247 with 18 home runs, 48 RBIs, and 48 runs. Francisco Alvarez has also been good, hitting .301 with four home runs, 23 RBIs, and 16 runs.
Quintana snapped a string of two straight quality starts with his mediocre outing. Now, he will attempt to bounce back as he leads a rotation that is 21st in the majors in team ERA. When Quintana finishes, he will turn it over to an inconsistent bullpen that is 14th.
The Mets will cover the spread if the top four hitters in their lineup can produce and move runners across the board. Then, they need a good outing from Quintana.
Why The Nationals Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Nationals have struggled lately. While their pitching has been solid, the hitting has continued to struggle. Washington needs more from the lineup.
The Nationals are struggling on offense, ranking 21st in batting average and runs. Furthermore, they are also 23rd in on-base percentage, 29th in home runs, and 26th in slugging percentage. They have players who must produce.
CJ Abrams is batting .286 with 13 home runs, 43 RBIs, and 52 runs. Meanwhile, Harold Ramirez has been solid since the Tampa Bay Rays released him and the Nats signed him; He has six RBIs over seven games. Joey Meneses has driven in runs this season. So far, he is batting .234 with three home runs, 43 RBIs, and 19 runs.
But the real focus will be on James Wood. Ultimately, he is one of the top prospects in the league. But Wood struggled to start his time with the Nats, going 1 for 7 over the first two games of the week.
Irvin has had two straight quality starts and has produced seven in his last eight outings. Now, he leads a rotation that is 13th in baseball in team ERA. When Irvin finishes, he will turn it over to a bullpen that is 18th in baseball in team ERA.
The Nationals will cover the spread if their hitters can produce at the plate and create some bigger innings to help get some runs across the plate. Then, they need a good outing from Irvin, and for the bullpen to hold the line.
Final Mets-Nationals Prediction & Pick
The Mets have won the first five games of the season series. They have recently owned the Nationals and are completely comfortable playing at Nationals Park. But Irvin has been consistent, with numerous quality starts. While he has not done as well at him, he has done enough to justify more faith in him over Quintana, who has not been good at all away from New York. Expect the Nationals to finish the series strong and cover the spread at home.
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Final Mets-Nationals Prediction & Pick: Washington Nationals +1.5 (-164)
