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It is a weekend series between the New York Mets and San Diego Padres. It is now time to continue our MLB odds series with a Mets-Padres prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
This series features two teams that spent a bunch of money in the offseason to improve their squads and both have been major disappointments. The Mets do come into the series as winners of five straight games. They are coming off a sweep of the Diamondbacks in which the offense was impressive. They scored 19 runs in the three games to get the sweep. Still, they sit at 41-46 on the season and are 17.5 games back of the Braves for first in the division. The Mets are 6.5 games behind the Phillies for the last wild card sport.
Tied with the Mets at 6.5 games back of the Phillies is the San Diego Padres. Also at 41-46, the Padres are coming in off a sweep of the Angels. Like the Mets, the Padres offense was hot in the sweep. They scored 23 runs in three games, and have scored 43 runs in their last six games.
Here are the Mets-Padres MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Mets-Padres Odds
New York Mets: +1.5 (-210)
San Diego Padres: -1.5 (+172)
Over: 8 (-104)
Under: 8 (-118)
How To Watch Mets vs. Padres
TV: SNY/SDPA
Stream: MLB.TV
Time: 9:40 PM ET/ 6:40 PM PT
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Mets Could Cover The Spread
Not only has the offense been good, the pitching was solid in the series against the Diamondbacks. Last night it was Carlos Carrasco that went eight innings and did not give up a run in the win. It has not always been good for them this year but came through in the low-scoring affair. On the season, the Mets are 18th in team ERA, 22nd in quality starts, and WHIP, while sitting 18th in opponent batting average.
Justin Verlander will be taking the mound today for the Mets. He is 3-4 on the season with a 3.66 ERA. His last two starts have been amazing. On June 26th he went five innings and did not give up a run. Then, last time out it was seven innings, with one unearned run being given up in the win. Verlander has given up one or fewer runs in four of his last six starts. Still, the team has won just two of those starts, with Verlander going 1-2 in that time.
Francisco Lindor is getting hot right now. He went 5-5 at the plate in the game yesterday and is hitting .391 in the last week. Lindo has also scored seven runs, as he has hit a double, two triples, and two home runs. He only has three RBIs in the last week though. Francisco Alvarez has had the most RBIs in the last week. He has also driven in seven runs while scoring five times. He is just hitting .333 with a .400 OBP. The power has been great, as he has hit four home runs in the last week.
Pete Alonso is also driving in runs as of late. He has six RBIs in the last week, with two home runs. He is hitting just .182 in the last week though. with three of his four hits being extra-base hits. Overall, there are heavy opportunities to get RBIs right now for Mets batters. Five different Mets have batting averages over .300 in the last week, while six Mets have OBPs over .390 in the last week.
Why The Padres Could Cover The Spread
It was the offense that was amazing over the weekend, which has not been the case most of the year. The Padres have been led by their pitching so far this year. The Padres are fifth in team ERA, sixth in quality starts, seventh in WHIP, and fifth in opponent batting average. It will be Yu Darvish going today in the hope of keeping the quality pitching going.
Darvish is 5-6 on the season with a 4.84 ERA. He has been better at home this year, as his ERA drops to 3.64 at home. Darvish has struggled some as of late. In his last three starts, he has given up four or more runs in each of them. Last time it was six innings of work giving up four runs and taking his second straight loss. In June, Darvish had a 5.40 ERA, and today he will be making his first start since June 21st.
In the last week, Manny Machado has been on fire, launching home runs. Machado has three home runs in his last six games while hitting .360. That has led to him driving in eight runs and scoring six times in the last week. Joining Machado with eight home runs in the last week is Fernando Tatis Jr. Tatis has hit a home run, a triple, and two doubles in that time. He also has scored five times while hitting .407.
All the stars of this team are getting involved. Xander Bogaerts has two home runs and seven RBIs in the last week. Jake Cronenworth has seven RBIs with a home run and a .350 batting average. Juan Soto has been hitting .318 with a home run and six RBIs. All five of their major pieces have had six or more RBIs in the last week. This has led to the Padres scoring 42 runs in their last six games, which is well above their season-long average.
Final Mets-Padres Prediction & Pick
On the surfaces, the pitching match-up in this one gives a slight edge to Verlander. That is mainly because of recent production, as Darvish has struggled in his last few starts. Still, the advanced stats show a slightly different story. Darvish has been much better in expected batting average, expected ERA, and expected opponent on-base percentage. Darvish has had some back luck as of late, and there should be a movement in his ERA towards his expected value. If that starts today, the way the Padres have been hitting, they will keep it going. All of the big bats are hitting well and slugging. The Mets still have some of their bigger bats struggling. With that, take the Padres in this one.
Final Mets-Padres Prediction & Pick: Padres -1.5 (+172)
