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The New York Mets will begin a three-game series with the Philadelphia Phillies on Friday at Citizens Bank Park. It's a National League East showdown as we share our MLB odds series and make a Mets-Phillies prediction and pick.
Mets-Phillies Projected Starters
Jose Quintana vs. Aaron Nola
Jose Quintana (8-9) with a 4.09 ERA
Last Start: Quintana was amazing in his last outing, hurling 6 2/3 shutout innings, allowing five hits, striking out six, and walking two in a win over the Cincinnati Reds.
2024 Road Splits: Quintana has been slightly better on the road, going 4-5 with a 3.97 ERA over 14 starts away from home.
Aaron Nola (11-6) with a 3.41 ERA
Last Start: Nola struggled in his last outing, going 4 2/3 innings, allowing five runs, four earned, on nine hits in a loss to the Miami Marlins.
2024 Home Splits: Nola has been much better at home, going 6-3 with a 2.88 ERA over 15 starts.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Mets-Phillies Odds
New York Mets: +1.5 (-154)
Moneyline: +134
Philadelphia Phillies: -1.5 (+128)
Moneyline: -158
Over: 8.5 (-110)
Under: 8.5 (-110)
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How to Watch Mets vs. Phillies
Time: 6:40 PM ET/3:40 PM PT
TV: NSPPH
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why The Mets Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Mets are hanging on for dear life, clinging to the final wildcard spot, with the Atlanta Braves right on their heels as they entered the weekend. Ultimately, there is still work for the Mets to make the playoffs and avoid another collapse. The offense must do more.
Francisco Lindor is still good and one of the most consistent batters in baseball. However, he has struggled in his career against the Phillies, hitting .228 with 53 hits, five home runs, 24 RBIs, and 41 runs over 60 games against them. Pete Alonso has had mixed results against the Phillies, batting .245 with 77 hits, 15 home runs, 53 RBIs, and 44 runs over 84 games in his career against them. Yet, he's been awful this season, hitting just .211 with four hits, one home run, two RBI, and four runs over five games.
Quintana has had two quality starts in three outings. He will face a team he has never defeated, as he is 0-3 with a 3.94 ERA over 11 appearances. When Quintana finishes, he will turn it over to a bullpen that is 16th in baseball in team ERA. Edwin Diaz has not had the best season but remains the closer, as he is 5-3 with a 3.60 ERA and 18 saves.
Why The Phillies Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Phillies are the best team in the NL by a whisker, hanging onto the lead with the Los Angeles Dodgers right on their heels. To put some separation from Los Angeles, the Phillies must start winning multiple games, and their offense must step up.
Alex Bohm has been out for the last few weeks and still leads the team in hits. Despite this, the Phillies are preserving and finding ways to win. Trea Turner will look to keep going. He is batting .279 with 107 hits, 14 home runs, 46 RBIs, and 69 runs over his career against the Mets. Bryce Harper has been solid against the Mets, batting .264 with 169 hits, 37 home runs, 106 RBIs, and 113 runs over 179 career games. Ultimately, he would like to slug one out of the park again. Kyle Schwarber has also done well, hitting .265 with 61 hits, 17 home runs, 42 RBIs, and 43 runs over 66 games against New York. If he can make contact, the Phillies may be able to score some runs in droves.
Nola had two quality starts in a row before his last outing and hopes to get back to that status. Curiously, he has had mixed results against the Mets, going 10-8 with a 3.21 ERA over 27 battles with his divisional rivals. When he finishes, he will turn it over to a bullpen that is 13th in team ERA.
The Phillies will cover the spread if Turner, Harper, and Schwarber can all batter the baseball and bring some runners home. Then, the Phillies need a good outing out of Nola.
Final Mets-Phillies Prediction & Pick
The Phillies lead the 2024 season series 4-2 and 3-3 against the run line. Additionally, the Phillies are 73-73 against the run line, while the Mets are 75-71. The Mets are 39-32 against the run line on the road, while the Phillies are 35-38 against the run line at home. However, the one factor that may change things is Nola. While he struggled in his last outing, he usually bounces back when it has happened in the past. Additionally, he is excellent at home. Take the Phillies to cover.
Final Mets-Phillies Prediction & Pick: Philadelphia Phillies: -1.5 (+128)
