We're back for another betting prediction and pick as the UFC 324 Prelims continue to roll with this upcoming bout in the Lightweight (155) Division. UFC veteran Michael Johnson will take on the streaking Alexander Hernandez in a close fight on the betting lines. Check our UFC odds series for the Johnson-Hernandez prediction and pick.
Michael Johnson (24-19) has gone 16-15 inside the UFC since joining back in 2010. A true OG of the Lightweight Division, Johnson has picked up steam with three-straight wins including a performance bonus knockout over Ottman Azaitar. He'll look for another upset over a young contender. Johnson stands 5-foot-10 with a 73.5-inch reach.
Alexander Hernandez (18-8) has gone 10-7 inside the UFC since 2018. After suffering back-to-back losses in 2024, Hernandez has since won four-straight bouts with TKO finishes in his last two. He's looked the best in his career as of late and welcomes this matchup as the betting favorite. Hernandez stands 5-foot-9 with a 72-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 324 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 324 Odds: Michael Johnson-Alexander Hernandez Odds
Michael Johnson: +130
Alexander Hernandez: -155
Over 2.5 rounds: -154
Under 2.5 rounds: +120
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Why Michael Johnson Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Daniel Zellhuber – U DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 10 KO/TKO, 2 SUB
At 39 years of age, Michael Johnson continues to appear in peak form, dealing a veteran performance against a highly-touted, hyped prospect like Daniel Zellhuber. Johnson simply planted his feet and sat down on his punches while offering strong defense to Zellhuber's kicking game. He out-struck his opponent 81-52 in a dominant performance, catching many of the punches and returning down the middle with his own offense. Expect Johnson to carry a ton of confidence as he makes a return to action.
Hernandez offers a much different style than some of Johnson's recent striking-heavy opponents, so he may have to lean on his wrestling a bit more than usual. Johnson is strong with an 81% career takedown defense rate, so the 36% takedown rate from Hernandez shouldn't be much of a threat. Still, Johnson should monitor the level changes and potentially offer a knee up the middle if he can time it perfectly.
While Johnson's cardio hasn't been an issue during this recent run, his opponent is known for pushing a high pace throughout all three rounds. The opening minutes of the fight will be crucial in gauging the timing of his opponent, but expect Johnson to quickly settle into his boxing rhythm as he'll let his hands fly early.
Why Alexander Hernandez Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Diego Ferreira – TKO (ground strikes, R2)
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 8 KO/TKO, 2 SUB
Alexander Hernandez has been on an impressive run of his own, most recently earning his second-straight TKO victory via ground strikes. From the opening bell, he's focused on crowding his opponents' space and immediately pressuring with fight-ending shots. He throws a ton into his punches without really over-extending himself, making him all the more dangerous when he's lunging forward and hunting the head. Hernandez should also have the strength advantage thanks to his wide physical frame.
Hernandez should be able to control this fight from the ground if he can manage to land in top position, but Michael Johnson has been known to utilize the guillotine in stalling opponents and getting back to his feet effectively. Still, Johnson has fallen by submission nine times throughout his career, so there's a clear path to victory for Hernandez if he can find it.
Still, his best chance to win this fight will be closing the distance with big shots, eventually landing and sitting his opponent down, then finishing with ground strikes from the top. If he's able to wobble Johnson at any point, expect Hernandez to waste no time in closing the distance and finishing this fight.
Final Michael Johnson-Alexander Hernandez Prediction & Pick
The longer this fight drags on, the more it will benefit Michael Johnson and his consistent boxing. Johnson is known for his toughness and if Hernandez allows him to hang around for too long on the feet, Johnson will eventually turn the tide in his favor once he figures out the timing of his opponent.
Hernandez has a clear path to victory in this fight if he's able to walk through the initial shots to land his own straight punches. His chin is more durable than Johnson's at this point and he can certainly afford to eat a few shots in order to land his power right hand. I expect the physicality of Hernandez to be too much for Johnson as he should be able to knock the veteran down on multiple occasions.
We'll go with the safe pick and take the betting favorite, but expect a great showing out of Johnson as he won't be going down easy.
Final Michael Johnson-Alexander Hernandez Prediction & Pick: Alexander Hernandez (-155); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-154)
