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The New York Yankees are limping toward the end of the regular season with their playoff chances all but dead, but Aaron Judge is giving them something to watch. Today we will discuss why Judge will finish with at least 40 home runs and how he is going to cross the finish line.
The odds of him smacking 40 this season is not good, according to FanDuel. Regardless, if you watched Judge play, you know he is capable of getting hot. Judge comes into this upcoming series with the Boston Red Sox at 22 home runs through 67 games. Furthermore, it puts him on pace for 35 home runs, which would be significantly lower than last season's output. The Yankees are slumping and are under .500. Additionally, Judge has not played much this season.
It was not that long ago that the Yanks were on top of the wildcard. Thus, they need Judge to power up. Judge got hot a year ago when he smacked nine in August and 10 in September. Ultimately, if he can hit seven more in August, he would match the nine he smashed last season. Judge would have 39 total home runs if he could replicate his heroics from last season.
We will give three reasons why Judge can finish with 40 home runs on the season.
Aaron Judge Has Some Perks on His Schedule
Aaron Judge has some nice perks coming on his schedule. First, he welcomes the Red Sox into Yankees Stadium this weekend. The Yankees will also host the Washington Nationals next week. Significantly, those are two teams that present bad pitching staffs that could easily allow Judge to get hot. The Yankees will run into a tough but familiar foe when they head to Tropicana Field to face the Tampa Bay Rays, a team he has smacked two home runs against this season. Next, they will face the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Three of these four teams will have bad pitching staffs that can give Judge some golden opportunities.
September begins with a trip to Minute Maid Park for a showdown with the Houston Astros. Yes, the Astros have a great pitching staff. But the stadium is very hitter-friendly. Then, the Yankees will welcome the Tigers into the Bronx before welcoming the Milwaukee Brewers. The Yankees will head to Fenway Park to face the Red Sox and PNC to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates. Ultimately, these are two bad pitching staffs.
The Yanks will welcome the Toronto Blue Jays and the Arizona Diamondbacks into town. Finally, they will end the season with the Jays at Rogers Centre and the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium. Judge has 32 career home runs against the Blue Jays through 102 games against them. Therefore, the opportunities are there for the taking.
Aaron Judge Needs His Teammates
Judge needs his teammates to produce to give him better chances. Moreover, he needs them to become threats at the plate. DJ LeMahieu is batting .242 with eight home runs, 29 RBIs, and 35 runs at the leadoff spot. Meanwhile, Gleyber Torres is hitting .265 with 18 home runs, 49 RBIs, and 65 runs in the second spot. Giancarlo Stanton is struggling this season, batting .201 with 18 home runs, 45 RBIs, and 33 runs in the cleanup spot.
These three provide importance to how opposing pitchers pitch to Judge. Moreover, they need to show they can batter the baseball because the 5-9 spots in this lineup are bad. Judge must get better pitches to get better home-run opportunities. Unfortunately, the lineup has been bad enough that Judge has struggled to get good pitches to hit.
His Hitting Metrics
His hitting metrics continue to skyrocket. Moreover, he seems to be hitting better than last year. Judge has a 97.2 percent exit velocity, which is up from 95.9 percent a year ago. However, he also has a 116.9 percent maximum exit velocity, which is down from 118.4 percent a year ago. But his expected batting average is at .307, which is up from .305. Additionally, his expected slugging percentage is at .751, which is up from .706. Judge also has a hard-hitting percentage of 63.6, which is up from 61.8.
But the league has been better at avoiding Judge this season. Hence, his walk rate is up, and teams are just putting him on base to avoid him and get to his teammates. This is cutting down on his chances to hit home runs. Regardless, Judge is capable of smacking many home runs. His hitting metrics remain off the charts, and he can definitely get on a heater to finish the season. Therefore, expect Judge to give everything he has over the final few weeks of the season to give himself a chance to surpass 40 home runs.
