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Buckle up baseball fans! In a rematch of last year's ALCS, two of the premier squads in the American League over the past decade and a half go toe-to-toe on the diamond Monday night as the Houston Astros will make the trek up to the northeast to square off with the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Join us for our MLB odds series, where our Astros-Red Sox prediction and pick will be available.
With a winning streak that only the New York Yankees have been able to match so far in 2022, the Astros saw their victorious ways snapped on Saturday against the Nationals in a 12-6 loss, but were able to rebound nicely in shutting out Washington Sunday by a score of 8-0. Winners in 12 of their last 13 matchups, Houston will send out veteran right-hander Jake Odorizzi, who sports a 3.38 ERA and a 3-2 record in 2022 thus far.
Looking to turn the tables for the Red Sox will be RHP Garrett Whitlock, who through four starts has compiled a 1-1 record with an impressive 2.19 ERA.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Astros-Red Sox MLB odds.
MLB odds: Astros-Red Sox Odds
Houston Astros: +1.5 (-176)
Boston Red Sox: -1.5 (+146)
Over: 9 (-120)
Under: 9 (-102)
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Why the Astros Could Cover the Spread
Ladies and gentlemen, does anyone want to give it their best shot in defeating the Houston Astros? Apparently, no one else in baseball has been able to find a way to down the defending American League champs. It is without question that the Astros are rolling, as the way they have been playing has been nothing short of beautifully poetic. With a balanced attack on offense and a confident approach on the mound, Houston believes they can win any game they play, and with good reason.
Through 35 games played, the Astros have showcased that they are a top 10 unit both in the batter's box and on the pitching rubber. Ranking third in the majors with 48 home runs and coming in at sixth in slugging percentage, the Astros have instilled fear in opposing pitching by punishing them with the long ball.
Additionally, Houston has gotten great production from players like shortstop Jeremy Pena, who has done a terrific job in replacing Carlos Correa. Even with a knee injury that saw him miss some time last series, Pena has been a sight for sore eyes.
On the mound, 15 Astros starters have reached the magic number of six innings pitched, as they have relieved the pressure off the bullpen throughout the majority of the year. Not to mention, but Odorizzi has been as dominant as they come, as the right-handed twirler has won his last three starts including giving up only one run in his previous 17 innings of work.
Why the Red Sox Could Cover the Spread
After a deep run in the postseason a year ago, the Red Sox have not gotten off to an ideal start to their season. Boston is 13-21 through 34 games, which currently puts them in dead last in an ultra-competitive AL East division. While Red Sox faithful might be seriously doubting this team's ability to win games when it matters most, baseball fans must be reminded that the season is only halfway through May, and there are still over 120 games to be played still.
In order for Boston to start racking up victories in the win column and cover the spread against the Astros, they simply need to start hitting the ball. The Red Sox rank near the bottom 10 in total runs scored, and have only hit 20 home runs on the season, good for the second-worst number in MLB. Boston also isn't getting on base, as their .290 on-base percentage rank the 26th in the majors.
While the offensive onslaught has been vastly disappointing, to say the least, the good news is that the pitching has been slightly better. The Red Sox will have to ride their arms to have success on Monday night. Boston is smack dab in the middle of the league with a 3.75 ERA and has only allowed the opposition to hit .222 in the first month and a half of the year.
Final Astros-Red Sox Prediction & Pick
Surprisingly, many baseball betting models across the country have the Red Sox as the favorites in this matchup at Fenway, including on FanDuel, but as the infamous College Gameday analyst Lee Corso says, “Not so fast my friend!” There should be severe doubts that the Red Sox can keep up with the offensive and pitching prowess that Houston possesses at this point in the season, as Boston is going to need a whole water dam to cool down the ‘Stros. Whitlock will give his best effort, but will eventually be out-dueled by his veteran counterpart in Odorizzi this evening. Houston takes game one in this ALCS rematch.
Final Astros-Red Sox Pick: Astros +1.5 (-176)
