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The Toronto Blue Jays take on the Seattle Mariners. Check out our MLB odds series for our Blue Jays Mariners prediction and pick.
Ross Stripling goes to the mound for the Blue Jays, while George Kirby gets the assignment for the Mariners.
Ross Stripling has a 3.32 ERA. He struggled in May, posting a 5.65 ERA for that month. However, in June, he figured things out and gave the Jays a 1.59 ERA and much-needed stability at the back end of their rotation while Hyun-Jin Ryu was on the shelf (now out for the season) and Yusei Kikuchi struggled. Stripling held the rotation together and is a big reason the Jays have remained afloat in the American League wild card chase. In his most recent start on July 3, the Tampa Bay Rays got to him for four runs in 4 2/3 innings. Stripling was very effective in June, but the Rays made him look bad, and it will be fascinating to see if Stripling can bounce back in this spot against a Mariner team which will be without Jesse Winker, due to Winker's six-game suspension.
George Kirby has a 3.75 ERA. Heading into a June 11 start against the Red Sox, that ERA was at 3.38. Kirby's next five starts, beginning with that June 11 game versus Boston, have involved this many runs allowed: 5, 2, 0, 7, 1. Kirby is good more often than not, but when he is bad he gets tagged. He is a hit-or-miss pitcher right now with no real dependable pattern in terms of when he will thrive or fail. That's a very difficult pitcher to bet for or against.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Blue Jays-Mariners MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Blue Jays-Mariners Odds
Toronto Blue Jays: -1.5 (+142)
Seattle Mariners: +1.5 (-172)
Over: 8.5 (-110)
Under: 8.5 (-110)
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Why The Blue Jays Could Cover the Spread
The Jays have been struggling, which means that as bad as things might seem right now, they're due for a breakout. It has happened before. The Jays were drifting and stumbling in late May before they swept the Angels four straight in Anaheim, a moment which turned out to be the devastating and decisive blow for the Angels' season. The Blue Jays are going to break out of this teamwide slump at some point. George Kirby is a promising young pitcher, but he is volatile. Toronto can take advantage of that volatility and feel confident that Ross Stripling will outpitch him.
Why The Mariners Could Cover the Spread
Toronto has hit poorly for a full week. A team which was 11 games over .500 not too long ago has lost six of seven and has made its season a lot more complicated. We have seen this team fail to hit before. The hits with runners in scoring position simply aren't emerging for Toronto, which has failed to score more than three runs in each of the first four games of this West Coast swing through Oakland and Seattle. As was the case a month and a half ago, everyone is going through a RISP drought at the same time. On Thursday night, the Jays gave up eight runs, so the pitching was more at fault, but the hitting has been subpar for this whole week, and it's hard to trust a Toronto team which has historically faltered on midseason West Coast road trips.
The Mariners, meanwhile, are at .500. They're back in the wild card hunt and are playing great baseball. They crushed the Jays on Thursday and are itching to get back to the ballyard on Friday. They have the momentum and the superior bullpen.
Final Blue Jays-Mariners Prediction & Pick
This is a stay-away game, primarily because we don't know what version of George Kirby will show up. Also, if you're leaning toward Seattle, you don't know if the Jays' bats are finally going to come alive. If you insist on making a pick, take the Mariners, but this is best viewed as a game you should pass or at least wait to live-bet a few innings in.
Final Blue Jays-Mariners Prediction & Pick: Mariners +1.5
