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The Toronto Blue Jays take on the Seattle Mariners. Check out our MLB odds series for our Blue Jays Mariners prediction and pick.
Alek Manoah goes to the bump for the Blue Jays, while Robbie Ray gets the assignment for the Mariners.
Alek Manoah has a 2.33 ERA, which is outstanding, but that ERA was 1.67 on June 17. Manoah is going through his roughest part of the 2022 season, having given up 14 runs in his last four starts, covering 24 2/3 innings. Manoah gave up only five home runs in his first 13 starts of the season. In his last three starts, he has allowed four dingers. Manoah has been great about not giving up first-inning runs, but he surrendered three first-inning runs in his most recent start against the A's on July 4. Manoah pitched at least six full innings in all but one of his starts through June 13. In his last four starts, he has completed six innings only twice. Manoah is losing ground in the Cy Young race, but much more importantly, the Jays have lost three of his last four starts. With Kevin Gausman hurt, Hyun-Jin Ryu out for the season, and Yusei Kikuchi struggling, the Jays badly need Manoah to return to the ace-like form he displayed for the first two months of the season.
Robbie Ray has had a season which is the opposite of Alek Manoah's journey. Whereas Manoah was lights-out for two months and has struggled the last month, Ray struggled in the first two months of the season and has been dominant over the past month. Ray had a 4.97 ERA on June 11, precisely when Manoah's ERA was under two runs. Since then, he has shaved 1.35 runs off his ERA, knocking it down to 3.62 with five brilliant starts. Ray has given up just three runs in his last 33 2/3 innings. He hasn't allowed more than one run in any of his last five starts. This is the pitcher the Mariners expected to get when they acquired him. Ray is pitching like the ace he was for the Jays last year. He's going up against the Jays' 2022 ace in a great pitching matchup.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Blue Jays-Mariners MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Blue Jays-Mariners Odds
Toronto Blue Jays: -1.5 (+150)
Seattle Mariners: +1.5 (-182)
Over: 7 (-120)
Under: 7 (-102)
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Why The Blue Jays Could Cover the Spread
They have Alek Manoah pitching for them. True, Manoah has struggled more in the past two weeks than at any previous point in the season, but it's hard to see how these struggles are going to last. Manoah is an elite competitor. He has top-tier stuff and a growing sense of how to manage a game. When he takes the mound, one expects him to thrive.
The Jays have played horrible baseball this past week. Their hitters are struggling, much as they did in the middle of May. Then they busted out of that slump. At some point, this team will break loose and crush the baseball. Just one blast could change everything for this team against Robbie Ray, a man they know well after Ray won the Cy Young for Toronto last year.
Why The Mariners Could Cover the Spread
Robbie Ray is the hottest starting pitcher in the American League over the past month. Three runs in 33 2/3 innings? That's untouchable. If Ray continues to pitch like that, the cold-hitting Jays will get smothered.
Final Blue Jays-Mariners Prediction & Pick
If you know your baseball history, you know that the Blue Jays have a miserable time on their midsummer West Coast swings. This year is no exception. Toronto is 1-4 against Oakland and the Mariners. If the A's could shut down the Jays without Frankie Montas, the M's can shut down the Jays with last year's Cy Young winner on the hill.
Final Blue Jays-Mariners Prediction & Pick: Mariners +1.5
