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The defending champion Atlanta Braves will travel to the Sunshine State to take on the Miami Marlins and open up a three-game set on Friday night. It is time to check out our MLB odds series, where our Braves-Marlins prediction and odds will take place!
With a below-average record of 17-21, the Braves will look to kick things into high gear after starting off the 2022 season in a sluggish fashion. On the bump for Atlanta will be the two-time All-Star in Charlie Morton, who has also begun the campaign stagnantly but has since rebounded nicely in his previous couple of starts. Making his sixth start of the year, the righty is 2-3 with a 4.93 ERA.
Similarly, the Marlins are neck and neck with Atlanta in the NL West, as the two clubs have almost identical records entering Friday evening's matchup. With one fewer loss than the Braves at 17-20, Miami is fresh off a gut-wrenching 5-4 defeat in ten innings to the Washington Nationals on Wednesday. After a day off to shake it off, the Marlins will send out lefty Trevor Rogers, who like Morton, has seen his fair share of struggles in 2022 with a 2-4 overall record and a 4.45 ERA.
Here are the Braves-Marlins MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB odds: Braves-Marlins Odds
Atlanta Braves: -1.5 (+140)
Miami Marlins : +1.5 (-170)
Over: 7 (-114)
Under: 7 (-105)
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Why The Braves Could Cover the Spread
Top to bottom, the Braves may have a better roster when it comes to pure talent that the Marlins. There's no doubt that former longtime Brave Freddie Freeman is enjoying his best life in Hollywood, but Atlanta still has to pieces to becoming a possible playoff contender. To this point, that has yet to be the case, as the Braves are coming off back-to-back series losses to the Padres and Brewers. If there is anything Atlanta is good at, it has been remaining consistent, as the World Series champs have repeatedly been a few games under .500 for at least a month now.
Losers of four out of their last six contests, the Braves will rely heavily on OF Ronald Acuna Jr, who has stolen the show in his return from an ACL injury to reach base 26 consecutive times. At the dish, Atlanta has been mediocre to say the least, as they have only hit .225 and scored 155 runs, good for 17th and 25th respectively.
Like a goaltender in the game of hockey, the pitcher can also be the ultimate equalizer, as one stellar performance on the mound can change the fortunes of their team in any given game. For Morton and the Braves, this formula for success against Miami in this one will be a must in order for a chance at the victory and to cover the spread. The 38 year-0ld Morton is coming off a strong outing in which he posted nine strikeouts in six innings while only allowing a single run on two hits.
Why The Marlins Could Cover the Spread
This division battle between these two rivals out east is surely to come down to who can outpitch the other. While the Marlins may have been playing better baseball of late, they still have a losing record at home with a 9-10 mark. Even with that statistic never being a good one in terms of fielding a successful team, Miami could be trending upwards after winning two consecutive home series versus the Nationals and Brewers.
When looking at the Marlins as a whole, it is a bit surprising that a team that is near the top in the league statistically in hitting and pitching can have a losing record as they do. Inside the batter's box, hitters are slashing the eleventh best average at .243 while a .394 slugging percentage, rating out as the eighth-best number in all of baseball. This tells baseball fans everywhere that there is a sense of caution that opposing pitchers must be faced with when squaring off with this lineup, as Miami can reach base and also blow the roof off of the stadium with one swing of the bat.
With Morton steadily improving start by start recently, can Rogers continue to do the same? The southpaw has demonstrated that he can, as the 24-year-old has recorded back-to-back outings where he has struck out a combined eleven batters and has only surrendered one run in 10 1/3 innings pitched.
Final Braves-Marlins Prediction & Pick
This matchup is as even as it gets with both pitchers posting similar numbers recently, but the offense of Miami will be too much to overcome. Look for Jazz Chisholm Jr to continue to make his presence known by ripping the cover off the ball, as he went 5-11 with a double, a triple, one home run, and three runs batted in against Washington over the past few days. It is wise to put your money on the Marlins covering the +1.5 run spread.
Final Braves-Marlins Prediction & Pick: Marlins +1.5 (-170)
