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The Milwaukee Brewers will take on the New York Mets on Thursday night. It's time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Brewers-Mets prediction and pick.
The Brewers started the year as one of the better teams in the MLB, but they've looked like anything but in recent games. They recently ended an eight-game losing streak, and are 2-9 over their last eleven contests. The Mets, on the other hand, haven't had the same struggles. They still sit atop the NL East with a 41-23 record, a mark that is still one of the best in the league. They're one of three teams that have racked up 40 or more wins, and they'll look to keep that success going against the slumping Brewers. Let's get straight into the pick.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Brewers-Mets MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Brewers-Mets Odds
Milwaukee Brewers: +1.5 (-182)
New York Mets: -1.5 (+150)
Over: 7.5 (-118)
Under: 7.5 (-104)
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Why The Brewers Could Cover the Spread
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The Brewers are lucky enough to face one of the worst starters the Mets have in this game. Tylor McGill is set to take the mound in this one, something that should give Milwaukee a sizable advantage. McGill hasn't been awful this year, but he's been far from good, posting a 4.50 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. His numbers over his last seven starts are even worse, as his ERA jumps to a whopping 5.18 while his WHIP climbs to 1.27. This is also McGill's second start after a month-long injury layoff, so it's fair to expect some rust from him. Overall, the Brewers shouldn't struggle too much offensively here.
Aaron Ashby will be tasked with making Thursday's start for Milwaukee. Ashby has been decent this year, posting a 3.91 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP on the season. He also has a distinct advantage against this New York lineup. The Mets are significantly better at hitting right-handed pitching than they are left-handed pitching. They see a huge drop in just about every major batting stat when they face a southpaw, including batting average, OBP, OPS, and slugging percentage.
Why The Mets Could Cover the Spread
There's certainly something to be said for momentum, and the Brewers have almost none of that coming into this game. Milwaukee hasn't done much of anything right in their past ten contests, and despite their win against the Mets last night, it's hard to see them instantly turn things around. The Mets have won three of their last five and have recently gone up against some of the best teams in the MLB. It's clear that they're in better shape heading into this game than the Brewers are.
Home field advantage will definitely benefit the Mets here. Ashby is a far worse pitcher when he plays on the road, as he sees almost all of his major stats worsen while allowing his opponents to hit a whopping .267 against him. McGill is the same as Ashby in that he earns much better numbers when he plays on his home field. He puts up a lower ERA and WHIP when playing in Citi Field, giving the Mets a clear advantage here.
Final Brewers-Mets Prediction & Pick
Neither side of the spread looks appealing here. The Mets money line looks pretty good, and the under is a viable pick as well. Neither team should explode offensively here, and that should be enough to keep the total runs scored below eight.
Final Brewers-Mets Prediction & Pick: Under: 7.5 (-104)
