Subscribe
Follow Us
The San Diego Padres host the Milwaukee Brewers for the third game of a 3-game series! It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Brewers-Padres prediction and pick.
The Brewers evened the series yesterday after a huge home run in the 6th inning from Tyrone Taylor to essentially seal the victory. Corbin Burnes earned the win, but that was not one of his stellar performances. He did only allow five hits, but the Friars forced his pitch count to take him out of the game after six innings.
Milwaukee improved to (27-16) on the year while the Padres fell to (28-15), just one game ahead of the leaders of the NL Central Division. This should once again be another great matchup as the Padres are sending out ace Yu Darvish to win the series. As is stands now, the Padres are just 1.5 games back of the Los Angeles Dodgers for first in the NL West.
Here are the Brewers-Padres MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Brewers-Padres Odds
Milwaukee Brewers: +1.5 (-192)
San Diego Padres: -1.5 (+158)
Over: 7.5 (+104)
Under: 7.5 (-128)
*Watch MLB Games LIVE with fuboTV (click for free trial)
Why The Brewers Could Cover The Spread
Milwaukee needed that win to even the series against the Padres. Both of these teams are very good to start out the 2022 campaign. What is similar from both sides is their starting pitching. Both sides have the top-2 NL CY Young candidates in Burnes and Joe Musgrove … who are 1-2 respectively at the moment. The Brewers get to avoid Musgrove for now but could face him later in the season. Burnes is now (2-2) with a 2.18 ERA and 67 strikeouts. Musgrove is (5-0) with a 1.90 ERA and 51 strikeouts while also leading the MLB with eight quality starts.
Now on to today. The Brewers are sending out lefty Aaron Ashby who is pitching well this season. He is (0-3) on the year, but his ERA sits nicely at 3.49 in 28.1 innings pitched. The lefty isn't a normal starter but is filling in for the injured Freddy Peralta. It's unclear how far he will pitch into this game.
The lineup for the Brewers is a little banged up at the moment. Hunter Renfroe just was placed on the IL before last night's game as he joins Willy Adames. In the bullpen, Josh Hader missed the first two games as he was away on Bereavement. It's unclear when Hader will return.
If the Brewers want to cover this spread, Ashby must do what he can to not let the Friars get out to an early lead. MLB's hits leader Manny Machado destroys left-handed pitching, so Ashby must not let him beat him today.
Why The Padres Could Cover The Spread
The Padres are in this position a lot this season. They usually win Game 1 of the series but go on to lose Game 2 often. However, the Padres' record shows that they have been winning a majority of their series this season. This is another test right here to see if the Padres can win a series against a potential playoff team. SD is coming off a sweep to the San Francisco Giants.
On the mound for the Friars today is Yu Darvish. Darvish is pitching well this season and if you take away one bad game against the Giants, he's pitching phenomenal. Yu is (4-1) on the year with a 3.91 ERA and 37 strikeouts. His home ERA is 1.37 so he should once again be on his game today. In Darvish's last start against the Philadelphia Phillies, he pitched seven innings and didn't allow a run. This will be his first home start since May 6.
SD will be facing a lefty for the first time this series but hit Alex Wood well in the series finale against the Giants. The Padres knocked in five runs off eight hits in three innings the last time they faced a lefty. Ashby better be careful because Machado, Luke Voit, Wil Myers, Ha-Seong Kim, and Jurickson Profar all hit southpaws very well.
This will once again be an exciting matchup. Both teams are hot and it should provide for some entertaining day baseball. The Brewers are (20-23) against the spread this season while the Friars are (24-19).
Final Brewers-Padres Prediction & Pick
With Darvish on the mound coming off a huge game, I like the Padres here against what should be a bullpen day for the Brewers (without Hader). Take the Friars to win by at least two runs and consider taking the under at 7.5 as well. It's been a low-scoring series but day baseball could go against the trend.
Final Brewers-Padres Prediction & Pick: Padres -1.5 (+158) and under 7.5 (-128)
