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The St. Louis Cardinals take on the Toronto Blue Jays. Check out our MLB odds series for our Cardinals Blue Jays prediction and pick.
Adam Wainwright goes to the rubber for the Cardinals, while Kevin Gausman gets the starting assignment for the Blue Jays.
Adam Wainwright has an ERA of close to two runs at home, but on the road, his ERA is more than double that. He simply has not been able to pitch well away from Busch Stadium in 2022. It's a mystery, but it's a real pattern in Wainwright's outings this season. In his most recent start, he was knocked around by the Cincinnati Reds, a team he has had trouble with in his last few starts against them. That is also a mystery. What isn't a mystery is that Wainwright, as he gets older, is not going to possess the level of dominance he has displayed in the past. Going up against a young, hungry lineup of Blue Jay hitters who are red-hot at the moment, this is a very difficult challenge for Waino in Canada.
Kevin Gausman was on the mound for the Blue Jays in last Friday's 28-5 win over the Boston Red Sox. Gausman took the bump in the third inning with a double-digit lead. That's a very rare circumstance for a pitcher, and Gausman did give up a few very hard-hit balls with the fat lead. He left the game after only five innings. The Jays' mop-up relievers came in to finish the final four innings of that contest. Gausman now has to mentally reset and go after a different opponent in a close game (at least in the first few innings). He's a veteran, so he knows what this challenge involves. Nevertheless, it's human nature to let up a little bit after winning a game by 23 runs. Gausman needs to find the right level of intensity. It's not as though he has experience in pitching five days after a 23-run win.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Cardinals-Blue Jays MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Cardinals-Blue Jays Odds
St. Louis Cardinals: +1.5 (-102)
Toronto Blue Jays: -1.5 (-118)
Over: 8 (-110)
Under: 8 (-110)
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Why The Cardinals Could Cover the Spread
The Cardinals were tied 3-3 in the fifth inning of Tuesday's game. Tyler O'Neill ripped a hard line drive, but it was right at a Blue Jay infielder (Santiago Espinal), who grabbed the ball and doubled off the St. Louis runner at first base. The Cardinals threatened in the sixth inning as well, putting runners on the corners with two out, but the Jays got out of the jam. Even though St. Louis was missing its two best hitters, Tuesday's game was very close until the Jays busted it open in the bottom of the sixth. This game can be a close one, too. The Cardinals just need to get that timely hit and a little bit of BABIP luck. Adam Wainwright remains a good pitcher. He can outduel Gausman, who has not been elite in recent weeks after a strong start to the season.
Why The Blue Jays Could Cover the Spread
You don't need to overthink this one: No Paul Goldschmidt and no Nolan Arenado for the Cardinals. That's a massive loss for the Redbirds. Adam Wainwright doesn't pitch well on the road. Toronto has scored a pile of runs since the All-Star break. The Jays are averaging over seven runs a game since the All-Star break if you take away the 28-5 win over Boston on Friday. If you include that 28-run game, Toronto is averaging over 12 runs per game since the break. Everything sets up well for the Jays here.
Final Cardinals-Blue Jays Prediction & Pick
If Goldschmidt and Arenado missing isn't enough of a reason to convince you to pick the Jays, Kevin Gausman pitching for Toronto should seal the deal. He is a better pitcher right now (not all-time, but right now) than Adam Wainwright.
Final Cardinals-Blue Jays Prediction & Pick: Blue Jays -1.5
