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The Los Angeles Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks start a three game series on Friday evening at Chase Field. With the Diamondbacks looking to play spoiler to the Dodgers NL West run, let’s continue our MLB odds series and make a Dodgers-Diamondbacks prediction and pick.
Arizona currently stands at 49-104 and is 29-46 at home. If you put $100 on every single Diamondbacks game so far this season, you’d be down $3,579 on the moneyline.
Los Angeles currently stands at 98-55 and is 46-32 on the road. If you put $100 on every single Dodgers game so far this season, you’d be down $302 on the moneyline.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the Dodgers-Diamondbacks odds.
MLB Odds: Dodgers-Diamondbacks Odds
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Los Angeles Dodgers ML (-210)
Arizona Diamondbacks ML (+190)
Over 10 Runs (-110)
Under 10 Runs (-110)
Why The Dodgers Could Win This Game
Tony Gonsolin takes the mound for the Dodgers as they look to start the series on the right foot.
In 13 appearances with Los Angeles, Gonsolin has pitched to a very respectable 2.93 ERA. The Dodgers have won seven of his 11 starts this season.
Gonoslin has been excellent at two things this season: missing bats and keeping the ball in the yard. Both of these strengths match up with the Diamondbacks weaknesses.
Arizona's offense already lacks pop. Of all 30 MLB teams, the D-Backs have only hit more home runs than the lowly Pirates. And while they have kept their strikeout numbers low throughout the season, they have been particularly susceptible to the K of late. In their last three games, they've struck out a whopping 25 times.
Gonsolin has the stuff to rack up strikeouts against this Arizona lineup. If he gives the Dodgers five solid innings and can give the ball to a bullpen with the second lowest ERA in baseball, it'll be a tall task for this Arizona lineup to make up ground.
On the other hand, the Dodgers should get plenty of chances to put up crooked numbers. They face Humberto Castellanos, who currently holds a 4.11 ERA.
Castellanos is in a slump after an excellent start to the season. In his first seven appearances out of the ‘pen and two starts, Castellanos allowed multiple runs only once. He's allowed three or more runs in all three of his last outings.
The former Astro has been stung by the long ball of late, allowing four homers in his last 14 innings. This is a good sign for the Dodgers, who have hit the fifth most homers in the league.
Considering Castellanos has not pitched more than 5.1 innings all year, the Dodgers will also get a shot at the D-Backs bullpen, which holds a 5.26 ERA. In all of baseball, only the Orioles bullpen has a worse ERA. The Dodgers bats should have a field day in the latter innings, and do some damage early against the starter.
Why The Diamondbacks Could Win This Game
Humberto Castellanos needs to regain his early season form for the Diamondbacks to have a shot at winning. Castellanos has shown he has quality stuff, allowing only five earned runs in his first 21 innings of the season.
His home run problem has emerged only recently, which should give D-Backs backers a ray of hope. Castellanos allowed only one home run in his first 24 innings in an Arizona jersey.
Realistically, Arizona knows Castellanos is likely to give up a few runs at minimum. The pressure in tonight's game lies on the Diamondbacks bats.
The D-Backs needs to do their damage quickly to avoid the uphill climb against the Dodgers bullpen. The biggest key for the Arizona lineup tonight is to display some patience at the plate. Thankfully for their backers, Gonsolin should allow some traffic on the basepaths to make this task easier. He has swing-and-miss stuff, but when he's off, the walks pile up very quickly.
Gonoslin has an abnormally high BB/9 of 6.26 this year, and it's gotten him into trouble in nearly all of his starts. In 10 of his 13 appearances, the righty has walked at least two batters, and he's walked three or more in six of these outings. When you consider that Gonsolin hasn't gone farther than 5.1 innings all year, these numbers become even more alarming.
The Diamondbacks aren't a very swing happy team. They are bottom ten in strikeouts per game, and in the top half in walks draw. Allow Gonoslin to dig himself into a hole with free-passes, and Arizona has a chance to steal one.
Final Dodgers-Diamondbacks Prediction & Pick
The Dodgers have an advantage in every facet of the game tonight. Their starter, bullpen, and lineup are all far superior to the Diamondbacks. Add in the fact that L.A. is motivated to win every game left in the season while the Diamondbacks are headed to Cancun in a few weeks, and we should see that disparity shine through quickly. Take the Dodgers run line as L.A. prepares for a stretch run that will determine the fate of the NL West.
FINAL DODGERS-DIAMONDBACKS PICK: LOS ANGELES DODGERS -1.5 (-135)
