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The San Francisco Giants take on the Arizona Diamondbacks. Check out our MLB odds series for our Giants Diamondbacks prediction and pick.
Carlos Rodon gets the ball for the Giants, while Tyler Gilbert makes the start for the Diamondbacks.
Carlos Rodon has been the best starting pitcher on the Giants' staff this year, better than Logan Webb. Rodon's 2.95 ERA doesn't capture how good he has been, in part because his most recent start was very deceptive in terms of how well he pitched. Rodon gave up five runs in five innings against the Dodgers last Thursday, and all five runs were earned. However, multiple Dodger runs scored on a misplay by the right fielder. Because baseball scores misplays as hits if the ball doesn't touch the fielder's glove, those runs are earned, even though a defender clearly made a bad play. Rodon gave up two “legitimate” runs, not five. His ERA would be lower if the Giants had a better defense. San Francisco's problems fielding the ball have been well documented this year. Rodon has allowed more than three runs in only three of his starts. He has been a bright light on a team which has struggled.
Tyler Gilbert was originally listed as the scheduled Diamondback starter for Monday, but Arizona manager Torey Lovullo later said that was a miscommunication by the Diamondbacks. They reportedly planned to have Merrill Kelly pitch on Monday all along. He took the mound and shut out the Giants. Gilbert gets the call for Tuesday's game.
Here's what we wrote about Gilbert on Monday:
“Tyler Gilbert has a 5.34 ERA, but you shouldn't pay too much attention to that number. Gilbert has not pitched on a regular basis this season, logging only 30 1/3 innings in 2022. When he pitched on July 16 against the Padres, it marked the first time Gilbert had made three regular starts in the rotation in consecutive turns. He had not previously made three straight starts in a normal 12- or 13-day time frame. He made two consecutive starts in late April before pitching once in May and once in June. In his three recent starts, Gilbert has delivered a 2.51 ERA: 14 1/3 innings pitched, four earned runs allowed, no home runs allowed, and only three walks. That's a good pitcher, not the man who allowed a 7.88 ERA through June 7. He has retooled his approach and has become a solid addition to the D-Backs' rotation.”
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Giants-Diamondbacks MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Giants-Diamondbacks Odds
San Francisco Giants: -1.5 (-126)
Arizona Diamondbacks: +1.5 (+105)
Over: 8.5 (-114)
Under: 8.5 (-106)
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Why The Giants Could Cover the Spread
The Giants have lost their first five games out of the All-Star break. They will fall below .500 if they lose on Tuesday night in Phoenix. It's a huge game for the team. The Giants know they have to bounce back. They have a great pitching matchup with their best guy against a back-end-of-the-rotation pitcher for the D-Backs. This is all set up for San Francisco to win.
Why The Diamondbacks Could Cover the Spread
After crushing the Giants on Monday, the Diamondbacks — who won a home series against the Giants in early July and nearly won a series in San Francisco not too long ago — feel they can go toe to toe with last year's N.L. West champions. There is no fear factor for Arizona in this series, and Tyler Gilbert has been a better pitcher than his ERA might first indicate.
Final Giants-Diamondbacks Prediction & Pick
Carlos Rodon knows the stakes involved here. He has answered the bell for the Giants in 2022 and should be up to the challenge in this very important game for San Francisco.
Final Giants-Diamondbacks Prediction & Pick: Giants -1.5
