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The Cleveland Guardians take on the Boston Red Sox. Check out our MLB odds series for our Guardians Red Sox prediction and pick.
Cal Quantrill gets the assignment for the Guardians, while Nathan Eovaldi is the starter for the Red Sox.
Cal Quantrill has a 3.75 ERA, but he has been a noticeably worse pitcher on the road. He has been a lot better at home this year. He had a choppy and uneven outing against the White Sox at home on July 11, and one or two other games which didn't fit the pattern of home and road splits being unequal, but for the most part, the location of games has mattered in shaping his performance. The Guardians are in the thick of the American League wild card chase. They need something extra, something more than what they have received up to now, to make that push and overtake one of the current A.L. wild card favorites. Quantrill delivering a quality performance in Fenway Park against a desperate Red Sox team would qualify as something extra.
Nathan Eovaldi has a 4.30 ERA, but that number really doesn't tell very much about his performance this year. His ERA was 3.15 on May 11. He had been doing a good job for much of the season. He is still one of Boston's better starters. However, he missed five weeks (June 9-July 14) with an injury. Upon returning to the Boston rotation, he got hammered in the infamous 28-5 loss to the Blue Jays last Friday. His ERA skyrocketed, but due to one game and not several bad games. Eovaldi is usually good. His ERA has been distorted by the really bad games he has. Moreover, part of the disaster from Friday against Toronto was created by the outfield misplay which led to an inside-the-park grand slam which broke the game wide open. In truth, that was a four-run defensive mistake, not a bad pitch by Eovaldi.
All other things aside, Eovaldi needs to put that Friday blowout behind him. He's an experienced pitcher, so that truly shouldn't be too hard for him to do.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Guardians-Red Sox MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Guardians-Red Sox Odds
Cleveland Guardians: +1.5 (-176)
Boston Red Sox: -1.5 (+146)
Over: 8.5 (-112)
Under: 8.5 (-108)
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Why The Guardians Could Cover the Spread
The Red Sox don't have Rafael Devers, who is clearly their best hitter. That is a significant loss and something Cleveland can capitalize on. Nate Eovaldi is a good pitcher, but he is inconsistent, and he needs to prove that after returning to the Red Sox following his injury, he can deliver the goods. Pitchers can have great track records, but when coming back from injury, one should not assume they will pitch at their normal standard. Recovery is a process which needs to be respected.
Why The Red Sox Could Cover the Spread
After losing on Tuesday, the Red Sox will be highly motivated to bounce back. What should also motivate them is that they are currently in last place in the American League East. Everyone in the Boston clubhouse will not stand for that. Cal Quantrill will face an angry Red Sox team. That probably won't end well for Cleveland.
Final Guardians-Red Sox Prediction & Pick
Cal Quantrill's lack of a convincing portfolio in 2022 road games is enough reason to trust the Red Sox here, even though they are without Rafael Devers. They can get offense from other sources in a game they badly need to win.
Final Guardians-Red Sox Prediction & Pick: Red Sox -1.5
