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The New York Mets take on the Los Angeles Angels. Check out our MLB odds series for our Mets Angels prediction and pick.
Carlos Carrasco gets the call for the Mets, while Michael Lorenzen takes the hill for the Angels.
Carlos Carrasco has a 3.52 ERA. He has made 11 starts so far this season. In three of his starts, he has allowed 17 runs. In his other eight starts, he has allowed only eight runs. At least 70 percent of the time this season, the Mets get a very good version of Carrasco. Every now and then, they get the mediocre version. The MLB odds certainly would suggest that Carrasco is worthy of trust most of the time when you make a Mets Angels prediction, but much as the Angels' 14-game losing streak is an outlier event, a bad Carrasco start in 2022 is not the norm.
Michael Lorenzen has a 3.69 ERA. His patterns of results this season are fascinating. In a three-start stretch from April 25 through May 7, he gave up zero runs, then three runs in his next start, then five runs in the start after that. In a four-start stretch from May 14 through June 4, he gave up one run, then zero runs, then three runs, then five runs. He pitches well, then less well, and then poorly. Since he gave up five runs in his most recent start, the Mets Angels odds would suggest that he will pitch well this time … but patterns might be broken.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Mets-Angels MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Mets-Angels Odds
New York Mets: -1.5 (+116)
Los Angeles Angels: +1.5 (-140)
Over: 9 (-104)
Under: 9 (-118)
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Why The Mets Could Cover the Spread
Carlos Carrasco has been a very solid pitcher for the Mets. Combine his steadiness and professionalism this season with a reliable New York offense which has regularly gotten timely hits in big situations, and you have a recipe for victory. Add in the fact that the Angels are fresh off a 14-game losing streak, their confidence dented and their weaknesses exposed. New York is a comprehensively superior team with a favorable starting pitching matchup. Don't overthink this. The Mets thumped the Angels on Friday night and looked like a far better baseball team. Moreover, the fact that the Angels snapped their 14-game losing streak on Thursday obviously didn't carry into Friday. The Angels need to rack up a few wins to truly gain confidence and belief. They haven't regained it just yet.
Why The Angels Could Cover the Spread
After snapping a 14-game losing streak, the Angels can start over after firing Joe Maddon. They just needed to break the ice and get a win under their belt. We have seen the Red Sox and Mariners bounce back after horrific and extended periods of terrible baseball. The Angels can be the same kind of team, writing a very similar story this season. Over 162 games, the ebb and flow of a season goes in all sorts of directions. It's time for the Angels to change course, and Michael Lorenzen is a solid starting pitcher who gives them a decent chance of winning.
Final Mets-Angels Prediction & Pick
The Angels might be ready to bust out of a funk, and Carlos Carrasco can serve up a clunker, but on balance, the logical pick in this game is the Mets, who look like a prime World Series contender this year.
Final Mets-Angels Prediction & Pick: Mets -1.5
