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The Washington Nationals take on the Los Angeles Dodgers. Check out our MLB odds series for our Nationals Dodgers prediction and pick.
Paolo Espino goes to the hill for the Nationals, while Tony Gonsolin makes the start for the Dodgers.
Paolo Espino started the season as a reliever for the Nationals, and he was very good in that role. Espino crafted a streak of nine straight scoreless appearances, and then reeled off a separate run of seven straight scoreless outings. All told, he ran off a lengthy period of excellence in which he notched 16 scoreless performances in 18 appearances from April 15 through June 9. Shortly after those 18 high-level outings, the Nats asked him to become a spot starter. He has posted a few decent starts, particularly a 5 1/3-inning, one-run game against the Rangers on June 24, but it has still been a difficult transition for Espino. He has allowed four runs in three of his last four starts. His ERA for the month of July is 6.23. His ERA in May, when he was rolling along as a short reliever, was 1.42.
Tony Gonsolin made the headlines last Tuesday, July 19, in a way he never hoped for. Gonsolin wasn't the GOAT in that game. He was simply the goat, the person most responsible for the National League losing to the American League. Gonsolin gave up a bomb to Giancarlo Stanton and another dinger to Byron Buxton, the only runs of the game for the A.L. in its 3-2 victory over the N.L. Before that start, Gonsolin allowed five runs in five innings against the Cardinals on July 13. His ERA had been in the neighborhood of 1.50 for nearly the entire season. That bad outing against the Cardinals pushed his ERA above two runs (2.02) for the first time since early April. Gonsolin is making this start on extended rest after the All-Star Game. He did not pitch in any of the Dodgers' four games over the weekend against the Giants. Will he hit the reset button here, or has he begun to regress? It will be fascinating to see if he can pitch at an elite level for the whole season, or if he runs out of steam. If he gets rocked here by the Nats, the drumbeat of alarmism surrounding him will get a lot louder.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Nationals-Dodgers MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Nationals-Dodgers Odds
Washington Nationals: +1.5 (+118)
Los Angeles Dodgers: -1.5 (-144)
Over: 8.5 (-104)
Under: 8.5 (-118)
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Why The Nationals Could Cover the Spread
Tony Gonsolin has fresh reason to doubt himself. The bad start in St. Louis on July 13, followed by the humiliation in the All-Star Game, could shake Gonsolin's confidence. You could see a diminished pitcher here, not the man who has vaulted himself into the Cy Young conversation. If Gonsolin is noticeably worse in this start than he was in the first half of the season, the Nationals could win this game. Washington also won in Arizona on Sunday. That comeback win could give the Nats the emotional fuel they need for a battle with the National League's winningest team.
Why The Dodgers Could Cover the Spread
After hammering the Giants in a four-game weekend sweep, everything is going well for the Dodgers. Mookie Betts, Trea Turner, and Freddie Freeman, their own version of the Big Three, are on fire right now. They are all crushing the baseball and playing strong defense. When those three are cooking, the Dodgers are a very tough team to beat. That point aside, Tony Gonsolin versus Paolo Espino is a lopsided pitching matchup in favor of Los Angeles. Gonsolin should not let the All-Star Game affect his preparation or performance for this contest.
Final Nationals-Dodgers Prediction & Pick
It is doubtful that Tony Gonsolin will continue to struggle. He has been so consistent this year that a sharp regression would come as a surprise. Moreover, Washington is not a good hitting team. The Dodgers have the clear matchup advantage.
Final Nationals-Dodgers Prediction & Pick: Dodgers -1.5
