Subscribe
Follow Us
The Baltimore Orioles take on the Chicago Cubs. Check out our MLB odds series for our Orioles Cubs prediction and pick.
Spenser Watkins goes to the hill for the Orioles, while Justin Steele gets the assignment for the Cubs.
Spenser Watkins has a 4.15 ERA, which certainly isn't a good number. However, he got injured on May 22 and did not pitch for a full month. Since coming back from the shelf, Watkins has been a different — and much better — pitcher. His ERA was six runs even when he got hurt on May 22. In his three post-injury starts over the past three weeks, Watkins has pitched 17 2/3 innings and allowed only three runs. His ERA has dropped by 1.85 runs in the span of three starts. That should tell you how well he is throwing the ball right now. Watkins, like the Orioles themselves, has been playing his best in recent weeks. Baltimore has become a national story and a feel-good part of the 2022 season as it approaches the All-Star break. The Orioles are at .500 at least 80 games into a season for the first time in several years.
Justin Steele has a 4.13 ERA. Unlike Watkins, Steele didn't have an injury which caused him to miss a full month of the 2022 season. Like Watkins, Steele has spent the past few weeks shaving runs off his ERA. He was at 5.40 on May 31, but in June, he posted a 3.03 ERA over the course of five starts. In his most recent outing on July 4 against the Brewers, he pitched a strong 6 2/3 innings, allowing just one run on two hits. Both pitchers in this matchup are getting better and have followed similar arcs in their progressions in 2022.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Orioles-Cubs MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Orioles-Cubs Odds
Baltimore Orioles: +1.5 (-176)
Chicago Cubs: -1.5 (+146)
Over: 8 (-104)
Under: 8 (-118)
*Watch MLB Games LIVE with fuboTV (click for free trial)
Why The Orioles Could Cover the Spread
The Orioles are the big story in baseball right now, having won nine games in a row to reach the .500 mark and put themselves squarely in the American League wild card race. The addition of Adley Rutschman has dramatically improved the team's pitching and defense. Hitters are stepping up with timely knocks. Everyone is producing in one way or another. The team's middle relief has been exceptionally strong. If the Orioles hadn't blown a few saves in Minnesota a few weeks ago, this team would be in a playoff position. As it is, the Orioles have surprised everyone in baseball and are a real threat to the three non-Yankee teams in the American League East. The Rays, Red Sox, and Blue Jays are all going to have to work hard to fend off the O's in the battle for a wild card spot. You don't want to bet against this team right now, certainly not when the woeful Cubs are the opponent.
Why The Cubs Could Cover the Spread
Justin Steele doesn't always bring his best, but when he pitches the way he did in Milwaukee against the Brewers, he is a very tough customer. The Orioles, as great a story has they have been, are not only due to lose; they are due for some regression to the mean. The O's are going to play a bad baseball game, and you want to be there to scoop up the winnings when that happens.
Final Orioles-Cubs Prediction & Pick
Yes, the Orioles are going to lose one of these days, but are the Cubs the team which will do it? This is a stay-away situation, but if you absolutely insist on making a pick, you might as well take the O's plus the run and a half.
Final Orioles-Cubs Prediction & Pick: Orioles +1.5
