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The Baltimore Orioles will continue their three-game series against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field on Saturday. It's time to continue our MLB odds coverage with an Orioles-Rays prediction and pick.
The Rays defeated the Orioles 5-4 to snap Baltimore's 10-game winning streak. The game had no score when Trey Mancini approached the plate in the third inning. Then, Mancini blasted a shot down the left-field line that landed just inside of the foul pole for a home run. The home run was his ninth in 2022, giving the O's the early 1-0 lead. Later, the Orioles struck again, this time in the fourth inning when Ramos Urias crushed a shot to deep left field. The home run was his eighth in 2022, giving Baltimore a 2-0 lead.
The Rays managed to trickle three runs across on clutch hits, leading 3-2 when Christian Bethancourt approached the plate in the sixth inning. Next, Bethancourt lifted a high fly ball that barely stayed inside the foul pole for a two-run bomb. The home run gave the Rays a 5-2 lead. However, Urias countered in the eighth inning with a two-run blast to left field. The home run was his ninth of the year, and second of the game, cutting the deficit to 5-4. Ultimately, the Rays held on to win the game.
The Rays are 50-40 and holding onto the top wildcard spot in the AL. Meanwhile, the Orioles are 45-45 and only five games behind the Rays, and also 2 1/2 games behind the Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays for the final wildcard spot. Things are getting spicy in the AL East.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Orioles-Rays odds:
MLB odds: Orioles-Rays Odds
Orioles: +1.5 (-200) ML (+106)
Rays: -1.5 (+164) ML (-124)
Over: 8 (-106)
Under: 8 (-114)
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Why The Orioles Could Cover The Spread
The Orioles would probably be in a better position if they played in any other division. Regardless, they have shown the world that their rebuilding phase is almost over.
The Orioles will go with Dean Kremer on the hill. Kremer is 3-1 with a 2.15 ERA this season. Recently, he tossed five scoreless innings, allowing two scattered hits but walking three. Walks are an issue he is attempting to work on, as is control, as his pitch count continues to be too high, which causes him to leave the games earlier than he would like. Kremer is 2-0 with a 0.51 ERA in three road starts. Subsequently, he has faced the Rays three times and has not defeated them yet, as he stands 0-1 with a 3.21 ERA in three starts against the Rays. It will be his first start at Tropicana Field.
The Orioles have one of the best bullpens in baseball, as their relievers rank fifth in team ERA. However, they allowed two runs yesterday so they will look to bounce back from that performance.
The hitters have not been great at all this season, as the Orioles rank 25th in batting average, 25th in on-base percentage, 23rd in runs, 16th in home runs, and 17th in slugging percentage. However, the O's have amassed clutch hits during the winning streak that has helped increase those numbers.
The Orioles will cover the spread if Kremer can dominate and if the Orioles can hit the ball offensively. They must get rid of the mental errors and overcome their issues at Tropicana Field.
Why The Rays Could Cover The Spread
The Rays have won 10 home games in a row against the Orioles. Additionally, they are 33-6 in their last 39 games against the Orioles at Tropicana Field. The Rays are a strange team, as they can look dominant one game and lose to a bad team another. Yet, they currently hold onto the top wildcard spot.
Ryan Yarbrough will take the mound for the Rays. His last appearance was on June 30, where he went 5 1/3 innings, allowing four earned runs on eight hits. Yarbrough faced the Orioles on May 20, going four innings and allowing two runs (one earned) on six hits. Thus, he looks to go a little longer today and give the Rays a chance to win.
The Rays have succeeded in large part because of their pitching staff. Their starters rank fourth in team ERA and their bullpen is seventh in team ERA. The pitching has gotten the job done but the hitting has remained inconsistent. The Rays will cover the spread if Yarbrough gives them a dominant outing and the hitters can muster four or five runs across the board.
Final Orioles-Rays Prediction & Pick
The Orioles could have won last night but lost on a few mistakes. They have struggled at Tropicana Field against the Rays. However, this Orioles team looks a lot different than the bad ones from years past. The Orioles will bounce back.
Final Orioles-Rays Prediction & Pick: Orioles ML (+106)
