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The Baltimore Orioles will travel to take on the New York Yankees in a three-game series this weekend at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our MLB odds series, which includes an Orioles-Yankees prediction and pick, laid out below.
Baltimore comes into this one with an 80-76 record, five games behind the final AL Wild Card spot with just six to go. Brandon Hyde's ballclub being in contention this late in the season is one of the best stories of the season and should signal that the long rebuild has ended.
The Yankees have won 11 of their last 14 games, bringing their record to 96-59, with the AL East already clinched. With the backdrop of a historic home run chase, New York will play their final three home games of the regular season, tuning up for a potentially deep playoff run.
Here are the Orioles-Yankees MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Orioles-Yankees Odds
Baltimore Orioles: +1.5 (-142)
New York Yankees: -1.5 (+118)
Over: 7.5 (-118)
Under: 7.5 (-104)
Why The Orioles Could Cover The Spread
Jordan Lyles will take the mound for Baltimore in this one, hoping to keep their playoff hopes alive. In 31 starts this season, Lyles has gone 11-11 with a 4.55 ERA with 135 strikeouts in 172 innings. Last time out, Lyles threw just two innings, a lengthy rain delay derailed the start. This will be Lyles' sixth start of the season against New York. In the previous five, Lyles has allowed 15 earned runs in 28.2 innings.
Baltimore's bullpen has lost some of its luster but still ranks ninth with a 3.49 ERA in 211 innings. Dillon Tate has pitched to a 2.88 ERA in 72 innings, holding opponents to a .218 batting average. Rookie Bryan Baker has appeared in 62 games out of the bullpen, with a 3.43 ERA and 65 strikeouts in 63 innings. Cionel Perez, an offseason waiver pickup, owns a 1.43 ERA in 56.2 innings, allowing just two home runs. Rookie Felix Bautista, armed with a triple-digits fastball, has pitched to a 2.23 ERA with 15 saves and 86 strikeouts in 64.2 innings. Batters are hitting just .170 against Bautista.
Anthony Santander has led the Baltimore offense all season, with 33 home runs and 88 RBI. Rookie catcher Adley Rutschman has been as good as advertised, leading the team with 33 doubles and 60 walks, hitting 13 home runs while slashing .254/.359/.448. All these numbers have come in just 108 games. Austin Hays is second on the team with 32 doubles, adding 16 home runs. Ryan Mountcastle is second with 22 home runs and 83 RBI, adding 27 doubles. Cedric Mullins is third with 31 doubles, adding 16 home runs and four triples. Mullins ranks second with 32 stolen bases and leads the team with a .262 batting average. Jorge Mateo leads the team with 34 stolen bases, hitting 13 home runs, 24 doubles, and seven triples.
Why The Yankees Could Cover The Spread
Domingo German is tonight's starter for New York, likely auditioning for a spot on the playoff roster. German has pitched to a 3.30 ERA in 13 appearances (12 starts), striking out 46 batters in 62.2 innings. German's 5.9 percent walk rate would be the lowest of his career. The curveball is the story for German, which he throws about 37 percent of the time, holding batters to a .210 batting average with 29 strikeouts in 81 at-bats.
New York's bullpen has overcome some injuries, ranking fourth in the league with a 3.03 ERA. Closer Clay Holmes has endured an up-and-down second half, but that is more indicative of a string of bad luck rather than bad pitching. Based on batted ball data, batters are expected to register an OPS below .500, and batters have hit just .196 against Holmes. Overall, Holmes has pitched to a 2.54 ERA with 20 saves in 63.2 innings. Lucas Luetge's role has been elevated with Wandy Peralta on the Injured List. Lutege has pitched to a 2.78 ERA with 58 strikeouts in 55 innings. Ron Marinaccio has a 2.18 ERA with 53 strikeouts in 41.1 innings, with batters hitting just .156 against the rookie.
Aaron Judge is the beginning and end of any discussion about the Yankees' offense. The hulking slugger has bashed 61 home runs, with 130 RBI, 28 doubles, and a .313 batting average, all of which lead the team. Judge is currently .002 points behind for the league batting title, which would secure a Triple Crown. Judge has not been solely reliant on power, walking in 15.8 percent of his plate appearances, which ranks in the 99th percentile, and stealing 16 bases, second on the team. Anthony Rizzo is second on the team with 32 home runs and 75 RBI. Giancarlo Stanton has belted 28 home runs and 75 RBI. Gleyber Torres has been hot of late, bringing his season totals to 24 home runs and 27 doubles. New York leads the league with 243 home runs and 593 walks, ranking sixth with 98 stolen bases.
Final Orioles-Yankees Prediction & Pick
New York's offense is just too much to handle.
Final Orioles-Yankees Prediction & Pick: New York -1.5 (+118), over 7.5 (-118)
