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The San Diego Padres take on the Chicago Cubs. Check out our MLB odds series for our Padres Cubs prediction and pick.
Yu Darvish gets the ball for the Padres, while Justin Steele takes the mound for the Cubs.
Yu Darvish has a 3.61 ERA. He has been very good this season, a definite improvement from recent seasons when he looked noticeably frail and lacked the command which propelled his rise to stardom. Darvish has fundamentally regained his ability to hit spots and change speeds. He looks like himself again. This does not mean, however, that Darvish is a dominant pitcher. He is at times, but every three or four starts, he has a difficult outing. In his last seven starts, these are the numbers of earned runs he has allowed: 3, 2, 5, 0, 2, 5, 0. Generally solid, yes, but prone to the occasional pothole.
It does need to be noted that Darvish had one atrocious start very early in the season. On April 12, the Giants tagged him for nine runs in 1 2/3 innings. Darvish had a 10.57 ERA on that day. In the next two months, he has shaved seven runs off his ERA. His ceiling is high, but his floor is still low. If three runs allowed, not five, can become his floor, that would be a big development for San Diego.
Justin Steele has a 4.79 ERA. In April, he posted a 5.50 ERA due to short outings; only one went beyond 4 1/3 innings. In May, he produced a 5.32 ERA because one of his starts was a disaster, two innings and seven runs allowed against the Reds on May 26. Yet, over the course of his last five starts, Steele has been relatively solid. That one nightmare versus the Reds is part of that series of starts, but it's the only bad one in the bunch. In his other four starts from that recent series of appearances, Steele has pitched 23 innings and allowed only five earned runs. He struggled in April but has clearly become a better pitcher over the past five weeks.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Padres-Cubs MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Padres-Cubs Odds
San Diego Padres: -1.5 (+128)
Chicago Cubs: +1.5 (-154)
Over: 9 (-110)
Under: 9 (-110)
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Why The Padres Could Cover the Spread
The Padres really struggled to hit over the past 48 hours, delivering barely any offense in three games against the Colorado Rockies over two days. The Padres could not score more than two runs in any of their last three games, which included both ends of a Saturday doubleheader. This offense is way too good to stay down for very long. Yes, Fernando Tatis isn't yet healthy enough to play, but the Padres have Manny Machado surrounded by role players who had been hitting the ball well, including in a recent series win over the New York Mets. This is a deep team, and with Darvish going against Steele, San Diego has to love the way this game sets up.
Why The Cubs Could Cover the Spread
After getting humiliated over the weekend in New York by the white-hot Yankees, the Cubs are going to pick themselves off the canvas and play with pride. No one likes being embarrassed the way the Cubs were over the weekend. They were hammered twice by the Yankees after a Friday game in which they had more than a dozen at-bats with runners in scoring position and failed to get a single run-producing hit. Darvish is a good pitcher, but he has his bad outings. This could be another one. Justin Steele has the higher ERA compared to Darvish, but again, he has been generally good over the past five weeks.
Final Padres-Cubs Prediction & Pick
The Padres and Cubs are both struggling to score. Maybe their bats will wake up here. Maybe Yu Darvish will step into a pothole. Maybe Justin Steele will wobble. On balance, though, two offenses going through problems means that nine runs is a high total. Go under.
Final Padres-Cubs Prediction & Pick: Under 9
