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The San Diego Padres and Seattle Mariners will wrap up their brief two-game series in Seattle on Wednesday afternoon. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our MLB odds series, which includes a Padres-Mariners prediction and pick, laid out below.
San Diego can no longer win the division, which is no knock on their 78-64 season. Simply, the Dodgers are too much to handle in the NL West. Still, San Diego is in the midst of playoff contention, currently holding on to the final NL Wild Card spot by a mere two games.
Seattle is in a similar position to San Diego, second place in the AL West behind a vaunted Houston Astros club. Seattle sits at 79-62, second place in the AL Wild Card, and fans are starting to feel like 2001 all over again. Seattle has one 6-4 in their last ten games, and now are just half a game behind Toronto for the top AL Wild Card spot.
Here are the Padres-Mariners MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Padres-Mariners Odds
San Diego Padres: +1.5 (-170)
Seattle Mariners: -1.5 (+140)
Over: 7.5 (-104)
Under: 7.5 (-118)
Why The Padres Could Cover The Spread
Mike Clevinger will be this afternoon's starting pitcher, looking to complete the mini-sweep of Seattle. Clevinger missed all of 2021 returning from Tommy John surgery and has been on a limited pitch count for most of 2022. In 19 appearances (18 starts), Clevinger has gone 5-6 with a 4.13 ERA and 81 strikeouts in 93.2 innings. Batters are hitting just .194 against Clevinger's fastball.
San Diego's bullpen ranks 14th with a 3.90 ERA on the season. Nick Martinez has shifted to the bullpen full-time recently, with 27 of his 37 appearances coming in relief. In those 27 appearances, Martinez has pitched to an impressive 2.05 ERA in 44 innings, with eight saves. Martinez has taken some of the closer duties with Josh Hader struggling since coming over. Steven Wilson has impressed in his rookie season, with a 2.98 ERA in 45.1 innings, including a 1.13 ERA in his last eight innings. Sidearming lefty Tim Hill has pitched to a 3.02 ERA in 48 appearances. Rather than getting it done with a bunch of strikeouts and power stuff, Hill has induced ground balls at a 60.2 percent rate, almost 16 percent above the league average.
San Diego's offense was supposed to be boosted by the deadline pickups of Juan Soto and Josh Bell. Instead, the two have hit just six home runs in over 200 at-bats combined, although they have combined for 52 walks. Soto has continued his impressive on-base skills, with a .382 on-base percentage in his time with San Diego. Manny Machado has turned in a great season, hitting .302 with 28 home runs, 34 doubles, and 90 RBIs, all of which lead the team. Machado has also continued with his elite defense at third base. Trent Grisham has hit 17 home runs despite hitting just .191 on the season. Jake Cronenworth has belted 16 home runs and 26 doubles, ranking second on the team with 73 RBIs. Jurickson Profar is second on the team with 32 doubles, adding 14 home runs and leading the team with 69 walks. San Diego ranks third in the league with 512 walks.
Why The Mariners Could Cover The Spread
Seattle will send Luis Castillo, their headline trade deadline pickup, to the mound looking to salvage a split. Castillo has done nothing but shove since arriving in Seattle, with a 2.70 ERA and 51 strikeouts in 43.1 innings across seven starts. On the season, Castillo has a 2.81 ERA in 21 starts, striking out 141 batters in 128.1 innings. Castillo averages 97 mph on his fastball, holding batters to just a .126 batting average against the offering. In addition to a dominant fastball, Castillo's slider, which he throws 20 percent of the time, has held batters to a .194 batting average.
Seattle's bullpen is ranked seventh in the league with a 3.29 ERA, striking out 504 batters in 473 innings. Andres Munoz, who averages over 100 mph on his fastball, has struck out 88 batters in 57.2 innings, with a 2.65 ERA. Munoz's slider has held batters to a .125 batting average, with 70 of his 88 strikeouts coming on the pitch. Closer Paul Sewald has pitched to a 2.62 ERA with 19 saves in 60 appearances. Erik Swanson has cooled off just a bit, with his ERA “rising” to a 1.17 ERA with 59 strikeouts in 46.1 innings.
Seattle's offense is boosted by Eugenio Suarez, who leads the team with 30 home runs and 82 RBIs, and is tied with four other players for the team lead with 23 doubles. Rookie Julio Rodriguez has been unbelievable, leading the team with a .277 batting average, adding 25 home runs and 24 stolen bases. Catcher Cal Raleigh leads all catchers with 23 home runs, turning in solid defense as well. Ty France has belted 23 doubles, adding 18 home runs. Jesse Winker has hit 13 home runs and leads the team with a .341 on-base percentage with 79 walks.
Final Padres-Mariners Prediction & Pick
Seattle owns the advantage with the starting pitcher.
Final Padres-Mariners Prediction & Pick: Seattle -1.5 (+140), under 7.5 (-118)
