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The Philadelphia Phillies continue a four-game series as they face off with the Miami Marlins at LoanDepot Park in South Florida on Saturday. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Phillies-Marlins prediction and pick.
The Marlins defeated the Phillies 7-1 on Friday night. Jesus Sanchez put the Marlins up early with an RBI double to right field. Then, Jesus Aguilar drove Sanchez in with an RBI single to make it 2-0 Marlins in the first inning. Later, Jazz Chisolm clubbed an RBI double, driving in two more runs. The Marlins added three more runs before allowing their only run in the eight. Nick Castellanos gave Miami its only blemish with a solo home run.
Zach Eflin struggled for the Phillies lasting four innings and allowing four earned runs on four hits. Also, the bullpen was not much better, as they coughed up three earned runs on three hits. Those runs came from off reliever Nick Nelson, who did not have a good performance. Conversely, Pablo Lopez allowed no runs on four hits through five innings. The bullpen allowed one run over the final four innings to secure the victory. The Phillies fell to 3-5, while the Marlins improved to 3-4. Today, the Marlins will attempt to run the four-game series and secure their third win in a row.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Phillies-Marlins odds:
MLB Odds: Phillies-Marlins Odds
Phillies: +1.5 (-230) ML (+102)
Marlins: -1.5 (+190) ML (-120)
Over: 8 (-110)
Under: 8 (-110)
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Why The Phillies Could Cover The Spread
Philadelphia will go with Ranger Suarez on the mound. He is 0-0 with a 10.13 ERA. Suarez struggled in his first start, lasting 2 2/3 innings and allowing three earned runs on five hits against the New York Mets. Now, Rogers looks to bounce back and dominate a team he is very familiar with. Suarez faced the Marlins seven times last season, making two starts. He was 1-0 with a save in those games. Additionally, Suarez threw seven scoreless innings with nine strikeouts in a 5-0 win over the Marlins last October. Also, he threw 5 1/3 scoreless innings with seven strikeouts in the start before in September. He performed exceptionally against the Marlins. Hence, the Phillies expect him to do it again.
Philadelphia also needs Bryce Harper to perform. He is 1 for 8 in this series with an RBI double on Thursday. Also, the Marlins struck him out three times on Friday night. Consequently, Harper must make an impact for the Phillies to have a chance. They also need the bullpen to perform significantly better than last night. Their pitching staff would be in a better position if the Phillies' hitters could convert on their opportunities. Philadelphia left nine runners on base last night.
Thus, the Phillies will cover the spread if Suarez can locate his pitches and continue his dominance over the Marlins. In addition to Suarez, the bullpen must deliver and not blow any potential leads. Lastly, the Phillies have to drive their runners in. Harper is the one who must take charge and lead the hitters.
Why The Marlins Could Cover The Spread
Miami will go with Trevor Rogers on the hill. Rogers is 0-1 with a 3.60 ERA. He lasted five innings allowing three earned runs, two earned, in a 3-2 loss to the San Francisco Giants in his first start. Now, he hopes to bounce back against the Phillies. He went 1-1 in four starts against the Phillies in 2021. Suarez allowed two runs or less in each start. In fact, he lasted 7 2/3 innings in a win on May 19, allowing one earned run on five hits with eight strikeouts. He knows how to pitch to Philadelphia hitters and will present a monumental challenge.
The Marlins must get to Suarez. While Rogers has excelled against Philadelphia, Suarez has owned Miami. Thus, the Marlins must capitalize on any opportunity they get against Suarez. Likewise, that means advancing the runners and getting them home. The Marlins failed in that regard, leaving eight runners stranded on Friday. Sanchez can help them in this aspect. He put the Marlins up early on Friday and will need to deliver once more.
The Marlins will cover the spread if Rogers pitches well. Additionally, they will cover the spread if they get to Suarez early and capitalize on any chances with runners in scoring position.
Final Phillies-Marlins Prediction & Pick
This could turn into a sneaky good pitching matchup. This game will come down to which team gets the other pitcher cracks first. Both pitchers are exceptional talents. However, Suarez has pitched a little better against the Marlins. Therefore, the Phillies have a better chance of covering the spread. Philadelphia outright wins this game.
Final Phillies-Marlins Prediction & Pick: Phillies Moneyline (+102)
