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The Pittsburgh Pirates will try and take the three-game series as they face the San Diego Padres on Sunday at Petco Park. It's time to continue our MLB odds coverage with a Pirates-Padres prediction and pick.
The Pirates rallied from a slim deficit to stun the Padres 4-2 on Saturday night. Pittsburgh entered the ninth trailing 2-1 when Ke'Bryan Hayes smashed a three-run bomb to left-center field to give the Pirates the lead. It was his first home run in 2022 and gave the Pirates the improbable win as they held on in their half-inning to close it out.
The Pirates are 19-26 and in third place in the NL Central. Meanwhile, the Padres are 29-17 and second place in the NL West.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Pirates-Padres MLB odds:
MLB Odds: Pirates-Padres Odds
Pirates: +1.5 (-128)
Padres: -1.5 (+106)
Over: 7 (-120)
Under: 7 (-102)
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Why The Pirates Could Cover The Spread
Pittsburgh can cover the spread mainly because San Diego has not played well recently. The Padres have gone 1-3 through four games. Additionally, four of their six wins have been by one run.
The Pirates will send Roansy Contreras to the hill. He has not been the best starter, as he does not last long. His last start featured his longest start of the season, five full innings of work. Contreras allowed no earned runs on three hits and five strikeouts. The issue with him is his pitch count, as he tends to get into deep counts. Contreras must limit that to have a chance to go deeper into the game.
Hayes, Michael Chavis, and Daniel Vogelbach have been the consistent stars on the offense. Hayes is hitting .283 with one home run and 15 RBIs. Additionally, he has walked 20 times and scored 18 times. Chavis is batting .286 with four home runs and 15 RBIs. Likewise, Vogelbach is hitting .241 with six home runs and 14 RBIs. The team is not hitting well, overall. The Pirates rank 27th in batting average, 26th in on-base percentage, 29th in runs, and 25th in home runs. Pittsburgh either scores in bunches, or barely score at all. The Pirates will need the offense to pick them up early.
The Pirates will cover the spread if Contreras can give them a solid outing. Additionally, the bullpen must perform tonight, as they have allowed three runs over two games. The offense must show some kind of spark to get the job done.
Why The Padres Could Cover The Spread
The Padres will roll with Mackenzie Gore on the hill. Gore is 3-1 with a 2.06 ERA. He went six innings, allowing one earned run with three hits and six strikeouts in his last start. However, Gore also walked two batters. It is something he must control if he wishes to produce another quality start. Gore is part of a pitching staff that has held the Padres together in 2022.
The Padres are seventh in the majors in team ERA and third in batting average against. San Diego has kept many games close due to solid pitching from the starters. It is what they have needed to do while they wait for Fernando Tatis Jr. to return from an injury.
The Padres rank 21st in batting average and 27th in home runs. However, they rank 11th in on-base percentage and 13th in runs. San Diego can manufacture runs in the simplest ways. Eric Hosmer has been great for them, batting .327 with four home runs and 24 RBIs. Additionally, Manny Machado is still one of the better hitters in the game, batting .357 with eight home runs and 27 RBIs. These two hitters can mash the ball and give the Padres some juice on offense. However, no one else in the lineup is hitting above .245. The Padres have struggled to get consistent results from an offense that wastes too many chances. San Diego left 16 runners on base yesterday. Those are pedestrian numbers and are guaranteed to give any team the loss.
The Padres will cover the spread if Gore can give them a quality start and shut down an anemic offense. Also, San Diego needs to come through when they get opportunities to drive runners home. Machado and Hosmer need to lead the charge, and the rest of the offense must follow. San Diego can close out this series on a good note if they come through on the simple things.
Final Pirates-Padres Prediction & Pick
The Padres are the better team but have struggled to prove that sentiment. San Diego was on its way to winning yesterday when they blew the game. Likewise, they now have to win today to take the series. The Padres are too good of a team to collapse two days in a row. Expect the Padres to win and cover this showdown.
Final Pirates-Padres Prediction & Pick: Padres -1.5 (+106)
