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The Texas Rangers will take on the Houston Astros in an AL West battle on Friday night. It's time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Rangers-Astros prediction and pick.
The Astros seem to be living up to expectations once again this season. Houston is 25-14 and in first place in their division despite a somewhat slow start. It's unsurprising to see the Astros back in the lead in the AL West, but it is surprising to see just how far ahead of the Rangers they are. Expectations were high for Texas at the start of the season, and they haven't come close to living up to them. The Rangers are 17-20, a record that has them seven games behind first place. This series is a huge opportunity for them to begin to turn things around.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Rangers-Astros MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Rangers-Astros Odds
Texas Rangers: +1.5 (-138)
Houston Astros: -1.5 (+115)
Over: 8.5 (-115)
Under: 8.5 (-105)
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Why The Rangers Could Cover The Spread
The Rangers will have one of the better pitchers in the MLB on the mound in this game. Martin Perez has been downright elite in 2022, posting a 2.01 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP on the season. Perez hasn't had an easy slate of starts either, as he pitched well against the Astros earlier in the season, the Los Angeles Angels, and the Boston Red Sox. In his last start against Houston, the lefty pitched seven innings of one-run ball. Helping Perez is the fact that the Astros are significantly worse offensively when they face left-handed pitching. The Astros' team batting average drops from .242 to .205 against southpaws, and they experience similar drops in statistics in OBP, OPS, and slugging percentage. Another solid outing from Perez is likely in the cards here.
The Rangers haven't been particularly good offensively, but there's some reason to believe they'll have success in this game. They'll face Houston starter, Cristian Javier. Javier has pretty solid numbers, but he does give up a ton of hard-hit balls to his opponents. Javier allows a 41% hard-hit percentage and an 11.5% barrel percentage. Both of those numbers are below average, and they don't match up well with this Texas lineup. Five Rangers have above-average barrel percentages, and six score good hard-hit percentages. This looks like a pretty solid matchup for the Texas offense.
Why The Astros Could Cover The Spread
While the Rangers do have some advanced stats going their way, it's hard to discount how good Javier has been. His 3.20 ERA and 1.11 WHIP are both good numbers, and his last start against Texas went well. Javier pitched five innings and only allowed a couple of runs in that game. Shockingly, the righty is yet to allow a single run in his home stadium. Javier has pitched 12 innings in Minute Maid Park, and he's only allowed a .128 batting average and a .75 WHIP. There's a good chance he continues his hot streak in this game.
The Astros will enjoy the advantages of playing on their home field. Texas has been a significantly worse offensive team when they play on the road. Their batting average, OBP, OPS, and slugging percentage all fall when they play road games. Javier is obviously elite when he plays on his home field, and Houston has been fantastic as a home team lately. They've won their last eight home games, earning a 10-4 home record overall.
Final Rangers-Astros Prediction & Pick
The Rangers will cover in this game. Perez has been elite, and that alone should be enough to earn them a cover.
Final Rangers-Astros Prediction & Pick: Texas Rangers: +1.5 (-138)
