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The Texas Rangers will attempt to salvage a split of the four-game series as they meet the Houston Astros in the finale at Minute Maid Park. It's time to continue our MLB odds coverage with a Rangers-Astros prediction and pick.
The Astros defeated the Rangers 21-1 yesterday. Yordan Alvarez started things off with an RBI single in the first that gave the Astros the 1-0 lead. Later, Jason Castro scored on a wild pitch in the fifth giving Houston another run. The Rangers inched closer with an RBI single by Adolis Garcia in the eighth, but that was as close as they would get.
Justin Verlander tossed six shutout innings, allowing six scattered hits and striking out eight batters. Ryan Pressly came in for the save in the ninth. Meanwhile, Jon Gray was solid, tossing six innings and allowing two earned runs on six hits. The Astros are 26-15 in first place in the AL West. Meanwhile, the Rangers are 18-21 and in third place in the same division.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Rangers-Astros MLB odds:
MLB Odds: Rangers-Astros Odds
Rangers: +1.5 (-120)
Astros: -1.5 (+100)
Over: 8.5 (-115)
Under: 8.5 (-115)
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Why The Rangers Could Cover The Spread
Texas will roll with Taylor Hearn on the hill. Hearn is 2-2 with a 5.46 ERA but has thrown better recently. Hearn tossed four innings allowing three earned runs on five hits and two home runs in his last start against the Los Angeles Angels last week. It was a no-decision in a game his team eventually rallied to win. He is 2-0 in his last 3 starts with a 3.21 ERA in May. However, Hearn has issued nine walks over three games and has yet to go past the fifth inning in a ballgame. He has some support in the Texas offense.
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Garcia is struggling with a .212 batting average but has also hit six home runs and 25 RBIs. Additionally, two of those home runs came in a game last weekend. Corey Seager is batting .252 with eight home runs and 19 RBIs. Otherwise, the Rangers don't have a player in their starting lineup that hits over .275. The Rangers are 26th in team batting average, 28th in on-base percentage, 21st in runs, and 25th in slugging percentage. Conversely, they are also 13th in home runs. The Texas offense is a boom-or-bust style, as they left eight runners on the base paths yesterday.
The Rangers will cover the spread if Hearn can give them the first decent outing of the season. Likewise, the Texas offense needs to support him and score some runs. Runs have come at a premium in this series as the Rangers have amassed five in three games. Texas will need Garcia, Seager, and the rest of the lineup to come through in the clutch when there are ducks on the pond.
Why The Astros Could Cover The Spread
Houston will go with Jose Urquidy on the mound. Urquidy is 3-1 with a 4.81 ERA. He threw five innings in his last start, allowing four earned runs on 12 hits, including two home runs. Urquidy has performed marginally better in May, as he has a 3.21 ERA, but he still has some issues to work on. He must limit the number of hits he allowed, and keep the ball in the yard. His pitch count is still way too high, and that is something he must rectify. Urquidy will have plenty of support from a Houston offense that has been good but inconsistent.
The Astros have scored seven runs over three games in this series. Alvarez, Michael Brantley, Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, and Yuli Gurriel lead the high-powered offense. However, the Astros are not performing to their own standards. They rank 19th in batting average and 15th in on-base percentage. Alternatively, they are second in home runs and 10th in runs. It appears that Houston scores their runs in bunches, and it usually comes in the form of the long ball.
Astros will cover the spread if they can get a quality start from Urquidy. In addition to him, the lineup needs to produce more than the 2.33 runs per game average they have done so far in this series.
Final Rangers-Astros Prediction & Pick
Neither starting pitcher is appealing at all. However, the Rangers are 2-0 in Hearn's last starts, and Urquidy does not exactly give off the vibe of confidence. Amazingly, both pitchers have produced the same exact ERA in May. The game feels like it will go down to the wire. The confidence in picking the Rangers to win is low. Alternatively, the confidence in picking Texas to cover the spread is much higher. Expect the Rangers to stay in it but do not be surprised if the Astros win in a walk-off.
Final Rangers-Astros Prediction & Pick: Rangers: +1.5 (-120)
