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The Tampa Bay Rays and the Boston Red Sox will begin a crucial three-game series on Tuesday night. It's time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Rays-Red Sox prediction and pick.
These two teams played a separate three-game series fairly recently, with the Rays walking away with a sweep. Those three victories gave Tampa Bay the lead in the AL East, and their hold on first place has only strengthened since then. The Rays lead the Red Sox by four full games now, making this series incredibly important for both teams. If Boston wins the series, they'll close in on the division lead that they held for so long. A series victory for Tampa Bay means that their first place lead may be too strong to dislodge.
Here's how the bookmakers have set the lines for Tuesday's series opener.
MLB Odds: Rays-Red Sox Odds
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Tampa Bay Rays ML (+111)
Boston Red Sox ML (-121)
Over 9 1/2 runs (-118)
Under 9 1/2 runs (-102)
Why The Rays Could Cover The Spread
Tampa Bay is one of the hottest teams in the MLB. They've won eight of their last ten games, with six of those wins coming by three or more runs. Their lineup has been especially good, scoring more than four runs in six of their last ten games. Red Sox pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez will have a tough time cooling the Rays down.
Rodriguez has had a very mediocre season to this point, posting a 5.33 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP. Strangely, Rodriguez's stats get significantly worse when he plays at home. His ERA rises all the way to 6.35, and his WHIP jumps to 1.43 in Fenway Park. The Rays are a better offensive team on the road, earning a higher batting average, OBP, OPS, and slugging percentage away from home, so this is a good matchup for Tampa Bay.
Why The Red Sox Could Cover The Spread
Boston's chances to win almost always rely on the strength of their offense. The Red Sox lineup ranks in inside the top ten in baseball in batting average, slugging percentage, and OPS. They should hit Tampa Bay pitcher Luis Patino easily in this one.
Patino has a 4.42 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP on the season, numbers that aren't great but aren't terrible. Patino's advanced stats show more cause for concern. The righty allows a 9.6% barrel percentage, as well as an average exit velocity of 89.3 Both are worse numbers than average, and they show that Patino gives up more hard-hit balls than most other pitchers. That's a terrible trait to have when facing a Boston lineup that specializes in crushing the baseball, especially in Fenway Park.
Speaking of Fenway Park, the Red Sox are a significantly better offensive team when they play there. Their batting average rises from .245 on the road to .271 in Boston. All of their other major batting stats follow suit. Patino's stats suffer hugely whenever he plays on the road, shown by his 7.41 ERA whenever he pitches away from Tampa Bay. All of these stats point to the Red Sox having a great offensive showing in this one.
Final Rays-Red Sox Prediction & Pick
This is a coin-flip type of game, so picking either money line is a bit of a risky prospect. The over is the most solid of all the picks on the board. The total has gone over in seven of the Rays' last ten games, and I don't expect that trend to be broken when they play a Boston team that can put up their fair share of runs.
FINAL PICK: Over 9 1/2 runs (-118)
