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The Tampa Bay Rays will face the Seattle Mariners on Thursday night. It's time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Rays-Mariners prediction and pick.
The Rays are right in the thick of one of the best divisions in all of baseball. The AL East has been hotly contested for years, and that certainly hasn't changed in 2022. The New York Yankees currently hold the division lead with an 18-7 record, while the Rays are in second at 15-10. The Mariners haven't quite had the same success. Despite high expectations, Seattle has floundered in the early going, earning a 12-13 record.
Both the Los Angeles Angels and the Houston Astros are currently ahead of them in the AL West, so there's plenty of work to be done. Starting off this series against the Rays with a win would go a long way for a Mariners squad coming off of three straight defeats.
Here are the Rays-Mariners MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Rays-Mariners Odds
Tampa Bay Rays: -1.5 (+138) ML: (-130)
Seattle Mariners: +1.5 (-166) ML: (+110)
Over: 7 (-108)
Under: 7 (-112)
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Why The Rays Could Cover The Spread
Tampa Bay will give pitcher Shane McClanahan the start in this game. McClanahan has started five games this season, and the results have been fantastic so far. He's earned a 3.00 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP over 27 full innings of work, two downright elite numbers. It's fair to expect another good outing here, as the Mariners have been a mediocre offensive team at best. Seattle's lineup is only hitting .231 on the year with a .317 OBP. Both of those numbers are among the worst in the league, so McClanahan shouldn't have much trouble dealing with this lineup.
The Rays will have to face Mariners ace Robby Ray in this game. Ray, is the reigning American League Cy Young winner, but he hasn't lived up to that billing in 2022. He's earned average numbers, and there's reason to believe the Rays can hit well against him here. Four hitters in Tampa Bay's lineup have a career batting average of .250 or higher against Ray. The last time the lefty faced Tampa Bay, he got shelled for three runs over four innings. A similar outing could be in store here.
Why The Mariners Could Cover The Spread
The fact that this game is in Seattle is absolutely huge. Robbie Ray has been a far better pitcher when playing on his home turf, earning a 3.00 ERA and a .92 WHIP in T-Mobile Park compared to a 4.92 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP anywhere else. Ray also only allows a .209 batting average to opposing hitters when he's at home while allowing a .250 batting average when he plays on the road. It's clear that being at home will benefit Ray hugely in this matchup.
Playing in front of their home fans will also be a big plus for Seattle's hitters. The Mariners have struggled on offense overall, but their numbers at home are surprisingly good. Seattle's lineup earns a much higher batting average, OBP, OPS, and slugging percentage when they play at home. They may not be a great offense, but the Mariners are decent at the very least when it comes to hitting at home.
Final Rays-Mariners Prediction & Pick
This is a fairly easy pick. The Rays should win this game outright based on the strength of their pitching and their far more consistent lineup. Lock in Tampa Bay and don't look back.
Final Rays-Mariners Pick: Tampa Bay Rays ML: (-130)
