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The Tampa Bay Rays take on the Baltimore Orioles. Check out our MLB odds series for our Rays Orioles prediction and pick.
Drew Rasmussen takes the ball for the Rays, while Tyler Wells goes to the hill for the Orioles.
Drew Rasmussen has a 3.13 ERA. He has been relentlessly consistent for the Rays this season. In each of the first four months of the season, his cumulative end-of-month ERA has never been higher than 3.50. In July, his ERA is 2.29. He did miss three weeks in the second half of June with an injury, but he came back strong after the injury, a very reassuring and positive sign for a Tampa Bay team which needs its pitching to hold up. The Rays' hitting has been inconsistent, in large part due to a boatload of injuries. The pitching staff has a small margin for error, but Rasmussen has given manager Kevin Cash what he has needed in 2022. As the Rays try to win the first game of this four-game set in Baltimore, they badly need Rasmussen to be at his very best.
Tyler Wells has a 3.69 ERA. His ERA for the season was 4.30 on May 25. Then, in June, when the Orioles began to get hot and make their surge up the standings, Wells dazzled. In his next seven starts, he never gave up more than three earned runs. He gave up more than two earned runs only once in those seven outings. He lowered his ERA by 1.21 runs down to 3.09 on July 3. He was part of the Orioles' ascent in the American League wild card standings. However, in his last three starts, Wells has hit some turbulence and become one of the few Oriole pitchers to not win games on a regular basis. In those last three starts, Wells has given up 11 runs in under 15 innings pitched. He hasn't pitched six full innings in any of those starts. Baltimore went 1-2 in those three games. The Orioles are thriving, but they need Wells to rejoin the party right now.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Rays-Orioles MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Rays-Orioles Odds
Tampa Bay Rays: -1.5 (+146)
Baltimore Orioles: +1.5 (-176)
Over: 8.5 (-105)
Under: 8.5 (-115)
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Why The Rays Could Cover the Spread
The Rays have lost two straight to the Orioles and have lost four of their last five games against the O's in Baltimore. They are falling in the standings. They previously lost a series to the Kansas City Royals. A team this good, this proven, with a clear and established winning identity, is going to bounce back. This team scrambles and hustles and finds ways to overcome its limitations every year. That isn't going to stop now. The Rays will have an answer for the pesky and feisty Orioles. They deserve the benefit of the doubt.
Why The Orioles Could Cover the Spread
After beating the Rays yet again, the Orioles are soaring with confidence. They are coming closer and closer to an American League wild card spot. They are just half a game behind the Cleveland Guardians for fourth place in the three-team American wild card race, meaning that they're just half a game from becoming the first team outside the playoff picture if the season ended today. Being the top pursuer in a playoff race is something no Oriole fan — not even the most optimistic one — would have anticipated before the season. This is a magical ride, and the O's are clearly riding the wave. They have had answers for everything Tampa Bay has thrown at them. The Baltimore bullpen is outstanding and won't give away a late-inning lead. There are many reasons to love the O's here.
Final Rays-Orioles Prediction & Pick
If you insist on making a pick, take the Orioles, but frankly, it's really hard to get a read on how the Rays are going to respond here. It's a good stay-away situation.
Final Rays-Orioles Prediction & Pick: Orioles +1.5
