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The Cincinnati Reds will attempt to win the three-game series as they meet the New York Yankees in the finale at Yankees Stadium on Thursday. It's time to continue our MLB odds coverage with a Reds-Yankees prediction and pick.
The Yankees rallied from behind to win 7-6 in extra innings. The Reds led 1-0 in the first inning when Kyle Farmer blasted a solo home run, his sixth in 2022, into the bleachers in left field, making it 2-0. Then, Mike Moustakas clobbered a solo shot to deep right for a home run. It was fifth in 2022, giving the Red the 3-0 lead. Stuart Fairchild added to the fun, crushing a solo shot to left field for his first major league home run. The back-to-back-to-back home runs gave the Reds a 4-0 lead.
The Yankees trailed 4-2 in the third inning when Isiah Kiner-Falefa clipped a bases-clearing double, putting the Yanks up 5-4. Joey Votto responded in the fifth inning with a ground-rule double that tied it up. The Reds took the lead on a sacrifice fly. Then, Giancarlo Stanton came up to hit with the Yankees trailing 6-5 in the eighth inning. Stanton blasted an opposite-field home run. The home run was the 23rd for Stanton, tying the game at 6-6.
The game went into extras, and the Reds failed to score with two runners on and no outs, meaning it was New York's turn. DJ LeMahieu was at second base to start the inning and Alexis Diaz pitching for the Reds. Diaz struck out Aaron Judge to start the inning. Then, he intentionally walked Anthony Rizzo. Diaz followed that with a wild pitch, which advanced the runners to second and third. Then, Diaz threw another wild one, which allowed LeMahieu to score the winning run.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Reds-Yankees odds:
MLB odds: Reds-Yankees Odds
Reds: +1.5 (-118)
Yankees: -1.5 (-102)
Over: 8 (-122)
Under: 8 (+100)
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Why The Reds Could Cover The Spread
The Reds will go with Luis Castillo on the hill. Castillo is one of the few bright spots on the Reds, as he is 3-4 with a 2.92 ERA. He tossed seven innings in his last start, allowing one earned run on four hits with eight strikeouts. Castillo has three outstanding starts in a row. Unfortunately, all have ended with a no-decision.
The Reds are 18th in batting average, 19th in on-base percentage, 17th in runs scored, 21st in home runs, and 21st in slugging percentage. They have not done a great job offensively but have executed in this series at Yankee Stadium. The Reds do not have a single regular starter hitting over .265. Farmer represents their best player in that category, as he bats .263.
Despite the horrific way they lost, the Reds' bullpen has been stout over the last 10 games. They currently rank seventh in team ERA over that stretch. If the bullpen can keep the solid performance going, it could pay dividends in winning this game.
The Reds will cover the spread if Castillo can give them a solid performance. Likewise, the offense must pick him up. It will not be easy, considering who they are facing.
Why The Yankees Could Cover the Spread
The Yankees will go with Nestor Cortes on the mound. Cortes is 7-3 with a 2.74 ERA. He is coming off a bad outing, where he lasted just 3 2/3 innings, allowing four earned runs on eight hits, including two home runs and two walks. It is essential that he cut down on walks and keep the ball in the ballpark. The Reds may be a mediocre offensive team, but they did hit three home runs last night. Cortes is 3-2 with a 4.29 ERA in seven starts since June 1, highlighting a slow down from his hot start. However, he is 3-0 with a 2.01 ERA in seven starts at Yankees Stadium.
The Yankees are 14th in batting average, second in on-base percentage, first in runs scored, first in home runs, and second in slugging percentage. They have numerous power weapons in Judge, Rizzo, and Stanton. Additionally, they have playmakers like Gleyber Torres, who can get the lineup going at any time.
The Yankees will cover the spread if Cortes bounces back from his bad outing. Likewise, the Yanks need the bats to mash. If they can get at least five runs, they will cover.
Final Reds-Yankees Prediction & Pick
The Yankees are the superior team. However, they have almost lost both games to the Reds. The Yankees could also claim they should have won both games. Had they not blown a 3-0 lead on Tuesday, they would be going for the sweep today. Regardless, they are the better team and the Reds never give Castillo any run support. The trend will continue and the Yanks win this one, covering the spread.
Final Reds-Yankees Prediction & Pick: Yankees: -1.5 (-102)
