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The Colorado Rockies take on the Arizona Diamondbacks. Check out our MLB odds series for our Rockies Diamondbacks prediction and pick.
Austin Gomber gets the start for the Rockies, while Dallas Keuchel takes the bump for the Diamondbacks.
Austin Gomber has a 6.53 ERA. In his most recent start against these same Diamondbacks last Saturday in Denver, he gave up four runs in 5 2/3 innings, which translates to a 6.35 ERA for that one game. His ERA went down, not up. That tells you how much of a struggle it has been for Gomber this year. His month of April was not great, but it was less than a disaster, with a 3.86 ERA. Then came May and June. Gomber got clobbered in each of those months. His May ERA was 6.84 and his June ERA was exactly nine runs. The only truly strong start for Gomber since May 28 was a six-inning, two-run performance against the Giants on June 9. He simply has to give Colorado a lot more than what he has delivered over the past two months.
Dallas Keuchel continues to get hammered like a pinata. Released by the White Sox in late May after posting a 7.88 ERA in eight starts with the club, Keuchel made his Diamondback debut on June 26 versus the Tigers. He then pitched against the Rockies this past Saturday in his most recent start. In these two outings with Arizona, Keuchel has given up 10 earned runs in 9 1/3 innings. He allowed six earned runs to the Rockies in five rocky innings on July 2. His season ERA is now up to 8.27. What else is there to say at this point?
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Rockies-Diamondbacks MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Rockies-Diamondbacks Odds
Colorado Rockies: -1.5 (+130)
Arizona Diamondbacks: +1.5 (-156)
Over: 9.5 (-102)
Under: 9.5 (-120)
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Why The Rockies Could Cover the Spread
The simple fact that Dallas Keuchel is pitching for Arizona should be more than enough reason to take Colorado. Keuchel routinely gets lit up by a Christmas tree. Let's repeat the point made above, for emphasis: Keuchel had a 7.88 ERA for the year when the White Sox released him. That ERA has gone up, not down, since he began pitching for the D-Backs. Austin Gomber is not a good pitcher, but he is the better pitcher in this matchup. Last Saturday, when these two guys went at it, the Rockies won a slugfest. That's what you should expect here, too. After facing Los Angeles Dodger pitching the past three days, Colorado hitters will see a beach ball from Keuchel in Phoenix.
Why The Diamondbacks Could Cover the Spread
After losing a crusher on Wednesday against the Giants — blowing an early 4-0 lead — the Diamondbacks are going to come to the ballpark with a sense of urgency. In Arizona's last game against the Rockies this past Sunday, the D-Backs blew a 5-0 lead. They have hit the ball really well over the past week but have allowed some games to slip away. Against Austin Gomber, expect the Diamondbacks to score a ton of runs, enough to offset the presence of Dallas Keuchel.
Final Rockies-Diamondbacks Prediction & Pick
You don't need to trust either team or either starting pitcher. You can look at this matchup and look at last Saturday's run total when Gomber faced Keuchel. That 11-7 game should tell you all you need to know: Take the over.
Final Rockies-Diamondbacks Prediction & Pick: Over 9.5
