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The Colorado Rockies take on the Los Angeles Dodgers. Check out our MLB odds series for our Rockies Dodgers prediction and pick.
German Marquez takes the mound for the Rockies, while Ryan Pepiot replaces the previously listed Mitch White as the starter for the Dodgers. White had been listed as the probable starter Tuesday morning, but Pepiot will now get the call.
German Marquez had been going in the right direction. He began the month of June with a 6.71 ERA following start against the Marlins. Over his next four starts, he shaved his ERA down to 5.58. He was brilliant in a June 24 start against the Twins in Minnesota, dominating the American League Central batting order with just three hits in 7 2/3 scoreless innings. He had made adjustments and found solutions after a lot of scuffling in a disappointing 2022 campaign. However, in his most recent start, the Dodgers got to him. Los Angeles scored five runs against him in 3 1/3 innings last week (June 29) at Coors Field. Marquez will try to figure out what the Dodgers did to him and find a way to get L.A. hitters to make softer contact. This is a very important test of Marquez after a lot of good work in June.
Ryan Pepiot has made a few spot starts for the Dodgers this season, three to be precise. Two of them came against the same team, the Diamondbacks. The other was against the Pirates. The three starts were from May 11-27, so Pepiot has not pitched for the Dodgers in more than a month. The totals: 11 1/3 innings pitched, four runs allowed on six hits with an eye-popping 11 walks. Pepiot has good stuff, but not good command. He did not pitch more than 4 1/3 innings in any of those three starts, precisely because he issued way too many bases on balls and elevated his pitch count. The Dodgers need him to show much more precision with his pitch location.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Rockies-Dodgers MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Rockies-Dodgers Odds
Colorado Rockies: +1.5 (-102)
Los Angeles Dodgers: -1.5 (-118)
Over: 8.5 (-115)
Under: 8.5 (-105)
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Why The Rockies Could Cover the Spread
German Marquez had a tough time against the Dodgers last week. He improved a lot in the first three and a half weeks of June and showed that he could make adjustments. After his bad outing in Denver against the Dodgers, he can bounce back here and give Colorado the start it needs to change the direction of this series. Colorado could not get the big hit against the Dodgers on Monday night. The Rockies were unable to expand a 1-0 lead in the early innings and paid a severe price. If Colorado can get three runs in the first four or five innings of this game, the trajectory of the battle will be different. The Rockies, who have been legitimately competitive against the Dodgers and the Padres in the N.L. West this year, are not a pushover. Going against Ryan Pepiot, who is not a proven starter, should really help them.
Why The Dodgers Could Cover the Spread
After being able to break through on Monday for four runs in the fifth inning after getting no-hit in the first four, the Dodgers gained another lesson in patience and perseverance, which they are known for. The Dodgers can (and do) go through a lot of innings in which their hitters simply aren't getting the barrel of the bat on the ball, but they work counts and continue to wait for a hitter's pitch they can mash. This patient approach is why they're such a good team and have set a consistently high standard over the past several years. This is an approach which should work against German Marquez.
Final Rockies-Dodgers Prediction & Pick
If you know the Dodgers are a better team but you don't trust Ryan Pepiot, simply go to the over. Both teams should score at least four runs in this game, which means at least one will score at least five.
Final Rockies-Dodgers Prediction & Pick: Over 8.5
