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The Kansas City Royals will continue their three-game series against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. After an exciting win on Monday night, the Red Sox will look to continue their four-game winning streak, while the Royals will try to break a six-game skid. This game is set to be a good one, so it's time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Royals-Red Sox prediction and pick.
First, let's check the lines for the game.
MLB Odds: Royals-Red Sox Odds
Kansas City Royals +1 1/2 (+105)
Boston Red Sox – 1 1/2 (-125)
Over 10 1/2 runs (-120)
Under 10 1/2 runs (+100)
Why The Royals Could Cover The Spread
Despite a recent skid, the Royals are a better team than people think. Their lineup is in the top ten in the MLB in batting average, which should help against opposing pitcher Nick Pivetta.
Pivetta hasn't been great all season and has been even worse recently. In his last seven games, he owns an ERA of 4.93 to go along with a WHIP of 1.36. The Royals have faced Pivetta once before this season and played well against him, scoring three runs in five innings. Playing against a poor pitcher like Pivetta drastically increases the chances of a Kansas City win or cover.
Although having Brad Keller on the mound doesn't inspire a vote of confidence in Kansas City, all hope isn't lost just yet. The Red Sox are slightly worse against right-handed pitching, sporting a lower average and a lower OBP. If Keller can get through four or five innings without getting absolutely obliterated, the Royals' bullpen has a chance at keeping them in this game.
Why The Red Sox Could Cover The Spread
The Red Sox can cover the spread because Brad Keller is starting for the Royals. It's as simple as that.
Keller has been abysmal for Kansas City so far, as he's earned himself an ERA of 6.27 and a WHIP of 1.77 over his last seven starts. He's pitched more than five innings just once in that span and has given up multiple runs in every appearance but one. Keller has faced the Red Sox twice in 2021, getting rocked both times. Over those two outings, Keller pitched a total of nine innings and gave up nine runs.
The advanced stats also work against Keller. The struggling pitcher allows a 46.3% hard-hit ball percentage, much worse than average. 11% of the balls that are put into contact against Keller are barreled, another stat that is far below the league average. Neither of these stats bode well against a Boston lineup that absolutely crushes the baseball.
It helps that the Red Sox lineup is flaming hot right now. Over the last four games they've put up 24 runs, scoring less than five only once in that run.
Final Royals-Red Sox Prediction & Pick
It is impossible to pick the Royals here. Having Keller on the mound against one of the best offenses in baseball is a recipe for disaster, and I expect the Red Sox to take full advantage of the situation. The over is an enticing play here, but it's just a little too high, mainly because of the lack of faith in the Kansas City lineup. Boston should win this game easily and by a wide margin.
FINAL PICK: Boston Red Sox -1 1/2 (-125)
