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We're back again with another prediction and pick for the final games of group play from the 2023 FIBA World Cup. This next game takes us to Group D where we see the top teams face off as Montenegro (2-0) takes on Lithuania (2-0). This should be one of the best games in the tournament thus far! Check out our FIBA World Cup odds series for our Montenegro-Lithuania prediction and pick.
Montenegro comes into this final group game after a clutch 89-74 win over Egypt. While they didn't cover the large spread, all Montenegro needed was a win to stamp their ticket to the next round. Listed at No. 18 in the FIBA rankings, Montenegro has a chance to dominate their group and send a message to Lithuania.
Lithuania comes into this game after yet another dominant performance over Mexico. They won that game by 30 points and have a total differential of +56 thus far. They have a great combination of talent and experience on their roster and they're looking to close out winning this group as the favorites.
Here are the 2023 FIBA World Cup odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
2023 FIBA World Cup Odds: Montenegro-Lithuania Odds
Montenegro: +5.5 (-115)
Lithuania: -5.5 (-111)
Over: 163.5 (-111)
Under: 163.5 (-115)
How to Watch Montenegro vs. Lithuania
Stream: ESPN+, Courtside 1891
Time: 8:30 a.m. ET/ 5:30 a.m. PT
*Watch NBA games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
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Why Montenegro Will Cover The Spread
Montenegro has been a pleasant surprise throughout this tournament and they're showing their worth as a deep ball club. Nikola Vucevic continues to lead them in a big way as he led them in scoring and rebounding their last time out. He's surrounding by a number of skilled big men with similar games, so Montenegro becomes a very tall team that can work inside and space the floor with their shooting.
To win this game, they'll have to hit their shots behind the arc and be aggressive in the paint. In their last game, they were 6-19 from three with 16 turnovers. Those number may suffice against a team like Egypt, but they'll need to tighten up and be disciplined against Lithuania. Still, Montenegro has a great chance to win this game if they can force Lithuania into foul trouble and win the game from the free-throw line.
Why Lithuania Will Cover The Spread
Even with Montenegro's success, Lithuania remains the favorite to walk out of this group undefeated. They've played on a higher level than their counterpart and have won their games in convincing fashion. Lithuania will have an edge here with the much more experienced lineup and they've been shooting lights-out through their first two games. If they continue playing the way they have, they'll cover this spread easily and make a deep run into the next rounds.
Lithuania has been able to cover the spread convincingly in both of their games. It seems as though oddsmakers are undervaluing their skill level and overvaluing Montenegro's momentum. Jonas Valanciunas continues to lead them as a scorer and on the defensive end. Look for them to put together their best defensive performance yet against an untested Montenegro team.
Final Montenegro-Lithuania Prediction & Pick
Montenegro has certainly looked impressive thus far and they're happy to be advancing to the next stage. However, we're going to learn a lot about their squad as they go up against a proven team like Lithuania. It's easy to look good against Mexico and Egypt, but expect Montenegro to be reminded who runs Group D. Let's take Lithuania to get the win in convincing fashion.
Final Montenegro-Lithuania Prediction & Pick: Lithuania -5.5 (-111)
