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The Miami Heat are traveling slightly west to Atlanta for a game against the Hawks tonight. The teams are separated by only one game in the standings so this game could have important implications for the playoff standings. Let's continue our NBA Odds Series and make a Heat-Hawks prediction.
Both teams will have a heavy incentive to win this game because being tied at this point in the season can be rough, especially if it's the difference between being in the play-in or not. There is much more incentive than ever before to remain a top-six seed in the playoffs and this game could be the difference between six and seven for these teams.
Here's how the sportsbooks have set the odds for Heat-Hawks.
NBA Odds: Hawks-Heat Odds
Atlanta Hawks: +5.5 (-103)
Miami Heat: -5.5 (-109)
Over 212 Points (-110)
Under 212 Points (-110)
Why The Hawks Could Cover The Spread
The Hawks will be without many in their usual stable of players. Trae Young, DeAndre Hunter, and Danilo Gallinari are all out. Those make up their three best scorers and their heliocentric creator. It is hard for a team like the Hawks to succeed without their primary creator and Young being out will be a big problem for the Hawks to overcome. They will need to bet on home-court advantage and their stars stepping up against an unprepared defense.
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They have a lot of depth to overcome that and they have one other star who could step up and take over the game. Clint Capela has been one of the more underrated players in the NBA this season and his two-way impact could cause fits for Miami. Bogdan Bogdanovic and Lou Williams are great pick and roll partners for Capela. They could show out with the offense more in their hands.
Why The Heat Could Cover The Spread
The main thing to point to with how the Heat could cover would be the rash of absences plaguing the Hawks. Trae Young, DeAndre Hunter, and Danilo Gallinari are all out. Those make up their three best scorers and their heliocentric creator. It is hard for a team like the Hawks to succeed without their primary creator and Young being out will be a big problem for the Hawks to overcome.
The Heat are only without Tyler Herro and Gabe Vincent. This means they still have their All-Star pair of Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. They should be able to lockdown everyone on the Hawks outside of Lou Williams with their swarming defense and they should have very little trouble playing their usual brand of offense. The Heat have a more complete team and will be able to keep their usual identity intact.
Final Hawks-Heat Prediction and Pick
The Heat are the clear favorites to cover here. Without Trae Young, the Hawks will struggle to find an offensive identity and the Heat are a difficult defense to face without an identity. Lou Williams and Bogdan Bogdanovic are solid offensive players, but not near the creators that Young is. The Heat are also prone to abusing teams with weak wing defense and that describes the Hawks near perfectly. Jimmy Butler will likely be able to get whatever he wants to and the DHO game between Bam and shooters dismantles unprepared defenses. Five points is not an unbelievable spread to beat out for the Heat their two-way advantage should allow them to cover the spread with relative ease.
Final Heat-Hawks Prediction: Heat to cover
