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The Utah Jazz (19-21) visit the Houston Rockets (10-28) on Thursday night. Action tips off at 8:10 ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Jazz-Rockets prediction and pick.
Utah has lost five consecutive games and is clinging to 10th place in the Western Conference. The Jazz have covered 53% of their games while 54% of their matchups have gone over the projected point total. Houston has also lost five straight and is firmly at the bottom of the Western Conference standings. The Rockets have covered 47% of their games while 53% of their matchups have gone under. This will be the third and final meeting between the conference foes. They've split the series thus far with each team picking up a tight home win.
Here are the Jazz-Rockets NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Jazz-Rockets Odds
Utah Jazz: -6.5 (-110)
Houston Rockets: +6.5 (-110)
Over: 231.5 (-110)
Under: 231.5 (-110)
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Why The Jazz Could Cover The Spread
Utah has a great chance to cover tonight despite having lost five consecutive games prior. The key advantage for the Jazz comes on the offensive end. Utah ranks fourth in the league in scoring, averaging 117.2 points per game. They play at the fourth-fastest pace in the league and average the fourth-most made three-pointers per game (14.6). Their offensive track record bodes well for their chances of covering tonight as they face off with Houston's 20th-ranked defense. The Rockets are particularly poor at defending the three as they allow 14.2 made threes per game – most in the league.
If the Jazz want to cover as heavy road favorites, they'll need Lauri Markkanen to continue his strong play this season. Lauri is playing at an All-Star level this year, averaging 23.9 PPG and 8.5 RPG. He's been remarkably efficient with a 53% field goal percentage and 43% three-point percentage. That being said, Lauri struggled in their prior game in Houston. In the Utah loss, Markkanen was limited to just 14 points on 7-19 shooting (0-6 from three). Utah managed just 108 points in the loss – showing how vital he is to their success. Markkanen did bounce back in their next game but his home/away splits are certainly something to consider before making a Jazz-Rockets prediction.
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Why The Rockets Could Cover The Spread
Houston is leading the charge for next summer's NBA lottery as they have lost five straight games and hold the worst record in the league. That being said, they've already beaten Utah here in Houston and have shown a tendency to give teams fits thanks to their work on the glass. The Rockets rank in the top five in rebound differential and notably average the second-most offensive rebounds in the league. Utah is one of the worst rebounding teams in the league. They allow the fourth-most offensive rebounds per game – potentially giving Houston a clear avenue to cover tonight.
Houston's work on the offensive glass starts with center Alperen Sengun. Sengun was not available for either of the team's two previous meetings with Utah and could potentially give them a major boost tonight. For the season, Sengun averages 14.3 PPG and 8.5 RPG while shooting a solid 55% from the floor. His 3.2 offensive rebounds per game rank ninth in the league and could prove to be a major factor tonight.
Guard Kevin Porter Jr. will likely play a major role in any potential Houston cover given his prior success against Utah. In two games against the Jazz this season, Porter Jr. has averaged 25 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 4.5 assists. He's also swiped three steals in those two games as well. The combo guard has given Utah fits in the paint as he's shot 44% from the field during their two matchups. His ability to penetrate and score and kick out to teammates gives Houston a huge advantage.
One of the main beneficiaries of KPJ's kick-out passes has been Jabari Smith. The rookie has averaged 15.5 points and nine rebounds in their two matchups with Utah. Smith has been a huge factor on defense as well where he's amassed three blocks. His biggest impact comes from beyond the arc, however, as he's been lethal from three. Smith has averaged 2.5 threes per game against the Jazz while shooting them at a 46% clip.
Final Jazz-Rockets Prediction & Pick
Utah is free-falling and may be transitioning into a seller with the trade deadline coming up. While Houston has the worst record in the league, they've already beaten the Jazz at home and I'd expect them to keep things close, if not outright win, tonight.
Final Jazz-Rockets Prediction & Pick: Houston Rockets +6.5 (-110)
How To Watch Jazz vs. Rockets
TV: ATTSN Rocky Mountain & Southwest
Stream: NBA League Pass
Time: 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT
