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The Orlando Magic (1-6) face the Oklahoma City Thunder (3-3) in a matchup of two of the NBA's youngest teams. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:10 pm ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Magic-Thunder prediction and pick.
Orlando has had a rough start to the 2022-23 season with a 1-6 record. They've faired slightly better against the spread (ATS) at 2-4-1 which is similar to their 45% cover rate last year. Four of the Magic's seven games have gone under after a near 50/50 split last season.
Oklahoma City has turned things around after and 0-3 start thanks to a three-game win streak. The Thunder have been a bettor's best friend this season having covered five of six games. This continues last year's trend where they covered 62% of games. Three of the Thunder's six games have gone under – mirroring last year's 50/50 split.
The two teams split last year's series, 1-1. Orlando took their home game by five, while Oklahoma City defended their home court in a 16-point victory.
Here are the Magic-Thunder NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Magic-Thunder Odds
Orlando Magic: +3 (-106)
Oklahoma City Thunder: -3 (-114)
Over: 216.5 (-110)
Under: 216.5 (-110)
Why The Magic Could Cover The Spread
The Magic have predictably been one of the worst teams in the league in the early portion of the season. Despite stealing a home matchup with Charolette, Orlando has lost every other matchup. The Magic have been the blueprint of a defensive-minded team, ranking seventh in points allowed but 28th in points scored. Orlando is a top-tier rebounding team, however, coming in at 8th in rebounding differential.
The story of the season for the Magic has been the play of first-overall pick Paulo Banchero. Banchero is among the team leaders in every statistical category: ranking first in points, second in rebounding, third in assists, and second in blocks. He's done it all for the NBA's third-youngest team – having scored 20+ points in all but one game this season.
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Although at times inefficient (Banchero is shooting just 43% from the field and averages 2.6 turnovers per game), the rookie phenom is the clear front-runner to win Rookie of the Year. After opening the season at +200, his odds have dropped to -300 less than a month into the season. Banchero has shown the ability to light it up on any given night but will have his work cut out for him against the Thunder's 12th-ranked defense.
Something to keep in mind when making a Thunder-Magic prediction is the health of Orlando's backcourt. Orlando will be without guards Jalen Suggs, Cole Anthony, and Gary Harris in tonight's matchup. Guard Terrence Ross has been mediocre in their absence (11.6 PPG) but look for wing Franz Wagner (15.1 PPG and 4.0 APG) to pick up the playmaking slack in an expanded role.
Why The Thunder Could Cover The Spread
The Thunder covered at the second-highest rate in the league last season and appear to be undervalued again this season. The Thunder boast a below-average offense (21st in scoring) but a surprisingly frisky defense (12th in points allowed). They've been a suspect on the glass (20th in rebounding margins), however, and are dead last in turnover differential. Nevertheless, Oklahoma City is red-hot, having won three consecutive games.
A big reason for the Thunder's recent success is similarly a big reason for their chances to cover tonight: the backcourt. Point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been electric this season. The fourth-year pro is averaging 31 points, five rebounds, and seven assists this season. He's been an analytical darling as well, placing eighth in the NBA's illusive Player Efficiency Rating (PER). SGA is coming off his best gamer of the season – a 38-point, nine-assist outing in their overtime win over the Mavericks. After hovering around 24 PPG the last two seasons, SGA has taken a huge leap this year as he cements himself among the league's elite guards.
In the win streak, it hasn't just been SGA, though. Backcourt mate Tre Mann has acted as OKC's de-facto heat check guy. He's averaged 14 points during the recent win streak including a 25-point outing against the Clippers. With Mann and SGA alongside wing Luguentz Dort (14 PPG) and big man Darius Bazley (8 rebounds per game during the win streak), the Thunder have a multitude of options capable of taking it to a vulnerable Magic squad.
Final Magic-Thunder Prediction & Pick
The prospect of a Paolo Banchero breakout is always there, but this Thunder team has been playing too well to back the Magic. They won last year's home game handily and given the trajectory of these two teams of late, I'd expect more of the same tonight.
Final Magic-Thunder Prediction & Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder -3 (-114)
