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The Dallas Mavericks (0-0) visit the Phoenix Suns (0-0) to kick off the 2022-23 NBA season. Tipoff is scheduled for 10:10 pm ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Mavericks-Suns prediction and pick.
Dallas and Phoenix face off in the first of four regular-season meetings between the two teams in 2022-23. Last season, the Suns won all three regular-season meetings between them but the Mavericks had the last laugh by winning their playoff series four games to three. The Suns won both games in Phoenix by seven and eight-point margins and they stole a win in Dallas by eight. However, in their most recent meeting, Dallas won Game 7 of the Western Conference Semi-Finals in Phoenix by 33 points.
The two teams did not clear 218 points in any of their three meetings during the regular season. Overall, Dallas was 57-41-2 ATS last season (58.2%). They were nearly as efficient ATS in away matchups (29-23, 54.9%). Phoenix was 51-44 ATS last season (53.7%). In home games, the Suns were 24-24 ATS (50%).
Here are the Mavericks-Suns NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Mavericks-Suns Odds
Dallas Mavericks: +4.5 (-112)
Phoenix Suns: -4.5 (-108)
Over: 218 (-110)
Under: 218 (-110)
Why The Mavericks Could Cover The Spread
Article Continues Below
The Mavericks shocked the Suns last season by coming back from an early 2-0 deficit in the Western Conference Semifinals to take down the Suns in seven games. They eventually lost to the Warriors in the Western Conference Finals but it was nonetheless a successful season for Dallas. They went 52-30 in the regular season en route to the Western Conference's 4th playoff seed.
The Mavericks are led by 2022-23 preseason MVP favorite Luka Doncic. Luka was the heart and soul of Dallas' team. He led the team in points (28.4), rebounds (9.1), assists (8.7), and steals (1.2). His stellar season resulted in a fifth-place finish in the MVP race. The 23-year-old has put together one of the most impressive beginnings to a career in NBA history. He averaged at least 21 points in each of his first four seasons and averaged at least 27 points, eight rebounds and eight assists in each of the last three years. Luka has an early resume to compete with virtually anyone in the league (at this point in his career) and finally put together an extended playoff run last year. However, with Dallas' second and third leading scorers no longer on the team, the Mavericks may be asking for even more from the young star.
After trading away Kristaps Porzingis and losing Jalen Brunson in free agency, the Mavericks are looking for someone to play second fiddle to Luka. Sixth man Spencer Dinwiddie is the team's top returning scorer after Doncic. In 23 games after being traded to the Mavericks, Dinwiddie averaged 15.8 PPG. Between Dinwiddie and Tim Hardaway Jr. (14.2 PPG), Dallas is still looking for a reliable second option on offense. However, Luka is so good that may not even matter.
Why The Suns Could Cover The Spread
Phoenix put together a second consecutive incredible regular season last year. The Suns went 64-18 and were the Western Conference's top seed before bowing out to the Mavericks. Despite their strong campaign, Phoenix faced a lot of question marks in the offseason – primarily concerning the health of aging point guard Chris Paul and the contract status of center Deandre Ayton.
Paul is one of the best point guards in the history of the sport. Despite having never won a championship, CP3 has a statistical resume rivaling anyone to play the position. In his age-36 season last year, Paul averaged 14.7 PPG and led the league in assists (10.8). He was limited to 65 games and looked hobbled in the postseason despite averaging 17.5 points and 8.3 assists. It seems as though we've entered each of the last five seasons questioning whether this will be the year CP3 falls off and this year is no different.
Thankfully for Paul, he has a backcourt mate fully capable of handling the bulk of the world load. Devin Booker has quietly become one of the most efficient and consistent scorers in the NBA. Booker is entering his 8th season despite being just 25 years old. The shooting guard has averaged at least 25 points per game in five straight seasons and he's likely to do it again this year. D-Book is an incredible scorer and underrated passer (4.7 career assists per game).
Final Mavericks-Suns Prediction & Pick
After watching what the Mavericks did to the Suns in the playoffs last year, it would be hard to pick against them. However, the loss of Jalen Brunson leaves Dallas with major question marks offensively. With how well Phoenix played them in the regular season, I'm gonna stay away from the line itself. Instead, with the odds split at -110, I'll play the trends here and take an under that hit in all three of their regular season matchups last year.
Final Mavericks-Suns Prediction & Pick: Under 218 Total Points (-110)
