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The Dallas Mavericks are in the nation's capital to take on the Washington Wizards Friday night, in a matchup of teams heading in separate directions as the regular season comes to a close. Luka Doncic and the surging Mavericks are gearing up for a playoff run, while the Wizards have already been eliminated from postseason contention. Let's continue our NBA odds series with a prediction, odds and pick for Dallas-Washington.
The Mavericks enter Friday's game at 48-29, third in the Western Conference due to owning a head-to-head tie-breaker over the struggling Golden State Warriors. Jason Kidd's team clinched a playoff berth on Wednesday with a 120-112 victory over the Cleveland Cavaliers, and has every incentive to continue winning over the regular season's remainder in hopes of avoiding a prospective second-round matchup with the title-favorite Phoenix Suns.
Washington, by contrast, has nothing to play for against the Mavericks other than draft position. At 33-43, the Wizards were ousted from the play-in tournament on Thursday night when the tenth-place Atlanta Hawks beat the short-handed Cavaliers. Expect rookie coach Wes Unseld Jr. to prioritize the development of his team's young players over its last six games, meaning plenty of minutes and shots for Rui Hachimura, Deni Avdija and Corey Kispert.
Here are the Mavericks-Wizards NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Odds: Mavericks-Wizards Odds
Dallas Mavericks: -8 (-106)
Washington Wizards: +8 (-114)
Over: 217 (-110)
Under: 217 (-110)
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Why the Mavericks Could Cover the Spread
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Dallas was 17-18 on New Year's Eve, registering as one of the season's early disappointments as Doncic worked his way back into optimal playing shape. The Mavericks have gone a sterling 32-11 since then, the third-best record in basketball over that timeframe behind Phoenix and the Memphis Grizzlies, per NBA.com/stats. Their success has been driven by both sides of the ball, too, with Doncic making a late-season push for First Team All-NBA and Dallas owning the league's third-best defensive rating since the calendar flipped to 2022.
The Mavericks' stunning trade deadline swap with the Wizards involving Kristaps Porzingis and Spencer Dinwiddie hasn't blunted their momentum, either. Dallas is 15-6 since the deal, with Dinwiddie proving his rough start to the season in Washington a blip. He's averaging 17.2 points and 4.2 assists per game with the Mavericks on stellar efficiency, giving them another dangerous playmaker beyond Doncic and Jalen Brunson.
Porzingis has thrived in Washington, finding comfort offensively he never did in Dallas. But nobody knows his two-way limitations better than the Mavericks, and Porzingis will be the focus of their gameplan on both sides of the ball—especially with Bradley Beal out for the season.
Barring an outlier shooting long-range shooting performance, Porzingis and the Wizards just won't have the horses to keep pace with the Mavericks. Even a three-point shooting barrage won't solve the problem of them lacking the wing stopper needed to keep Doncic in relative check.
Why the Wizards Could Cover the Spread
There's no denying the talent deficit Washington will face on Friday night.
Beal underwent season-ending surgery on his left wrist on February 10th, the same day the Wizards sent their only other dynamic ball handler, Dinwiddie, to Dallas. They've tried to compensate by giving veterans Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Tomas Satoransky more playmaking duties, a role for which neither is well-suited at this point in their careers—or ever was, frankly.
Making matters even tougher for Washington on Friday will be the absence of Kyle Kuzma, still out with right knee tendonitis. It'll be up to Porzingis and Hachimura more than anyone else to pick up the offensive slack left by Beal and Kuzma, a difficult chore against a defense that lacks top-tier talent but plays with consistent intensity and teamwork under Kidd.
Porzingis has been a more aggressive, assertive offensive player with the Wizards. Maybe he channels some pent-up frustration into another big game, this time against his former team. Hachimura, Avdija, Kispert and the rest of Washington's supporting cast would benefit immensely from the extra defensive attention Porzingis can create when he gets hot.
Final Mavericks-Wizards Prediction & Pick
Dallas has an obvious upper hand even with both of these rosters at full-strength, and Washington will be without its two most dynamic creators on Friday night. The wrinkle of Porzingis playing his former team could loom large, but the same is true for Dinwiddie—and he left the Wizards on just as frosty terms as the former did the Mavericks. Expect a comfortable Dallas win, though be wary of Washington closing within the spread late.
Final Mavericks-Wizards Pick: Dallas -8 (-106)
