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The Brooklyn Nets will play the second game of a back-to-back tonight against the Utah Jazz. It’s time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Nets-Jazz prediction and pick.
The Nets hold a record of 30-14 overall, but only 23-21 and against the spread. Brooklyn is coming off a win last night over the Portland Trail Blazers.
The Jazz have the best record in the league at 31-11 overall and 27-14-1 against the spread. Utah is coming off a blowout win over the Chicago Bulls.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the opening Nets-Jazz odds.
NBA Odds: Nets-Jazz Odds
Brooklyn Nets +10.5 (-108)
Utah Jazz -10.5 (-112)
Over 230 Points (-110)
Under 230 Points (-110)
Why The Nets Could Cover The Spread
With another upset win last night, the Nets are now 10-2 against the spread as underdogs. Time and time again, they've surprised the NBA world with both Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving out.
This Nets supporting cast doesn't get the props it deserves, and James Harden has shown the world what he can do as the sole superstar on a team. Just because two big names are out, doesn't mean the Nets are doomed to lose.
Tonight, James Harden is questionable yet again, as well as Blake Griffin. They might be able to get by against other teams with their stars out, but they need both on the floor tonight.
Last night, Brooklyn won by pounding the paint, scoring a whopping 76% of their points from inside the arc and the free-throw line.
If the Nets want to record another upset, they should use the same strategy tonight.
While Brooklyn can shoot the three as well as any team, getting into a three-point shootout with the Jazz on the second night of a road back-to-back is not a winning formula.
Utah allows the seventh-highest percentage of points in the paint, giving up 49.8% of their points right next to the hoop. The Nets should continue to drive the ball with aggression and make this a gritty, grind it out game.
Defensively, the Nets have improved from a horrendous start, especially from the perimeter. In their last five matchups, the Nets have held opposing teams to 35% or lower from beyond the arc four out of five times.
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The Nets need Harden, a healthy dose of paint points, and continued perimeter pressure. Get all three, and we'll have a game that comes down to the final minutes.
Why The Jazz Could Cover The Spread
While a 10.5 point spread might look a little high against one of the best teams in the league, there are several factors playing into the Jazz's hands tonight.
Obviously, no Durant or Irving lowers the ceiling of what this electric Brooklyn offense can produce. But as stated previously, this Nets team still can't be overlooked.
The three biggest factors helping Utah's cause tonight is their excellent track record against large spreads, Harden's health, and a Nets team that is vulnerable to fatigue.
In nine games where the Jazz have been favored by double digits, Utah has gone 6-2-1 against the spread. A whopping 25 out of Utah's 31 wins have come by double-digit margins.
The Nets are only 2-4 in the second game of a back-to-back set. Harden, Joe Harris, and Jeff Green all played 32+ minutes last night. Harden played 40. It's doubtful the Nets got enough rest while traveling to Utah last night, and it would be a surprise if the Nets came out sharp to start.
Usually, we see fatigue strike shooters first. Shots start to hit the front rim as guys don't have the legs to get the proper lift. For a Brooklyn team that gets 36.4% of their points from three, 10th highest in the league, this could be deadly.
Lastly, James Harden is questionable to play. If Harden doesn't take the floor, it would take a miracle for the Nets to win this game. They simply don't have the firepower to keep up with the third highest-scoring team in the league.
With all these factors, the Jazz have a great chance of getting a double-digit win tonight.
Final Nets-Jazz Prediction & Pick
James Harden's availability tonight is the biggest question heading into this game. My best guess is that he will play, and the Jazz line will drop to around -9.5. I think the odds that the Jazz win by double-digits tonight is high. A fully healthy Jazz team has blown out nearly every top team. They've beat the Lakers, Clippers, Sixers, and Bucks by double digits already. I'd take the Utah all the way up to -11.
FINAL NETS-JAZZ PICK: UTAH JAZZ -10.5
