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The San Antonio Spurs (12-25) visit the New York Knicks (20-18) on Wednesday night. Action tips off at 7:40 ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Spurs-Knicks prediction and pick.
San Antonio has lost three of their last four games to drop them to 14th place in the Western Conference. The Spurs covered 43% of their games while 58% of their games went over. New York has won two consecutive games to bump them up to eighth place in the Eastern Conference. The Knicks covered 56% of their games while 52% of their games went under. This will be the second and final meeting between the two teams. The Spurs took the first matchup 122-115 last week in San Antonio.
Here are the Spurs-Knicks NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Spurs-Knicks Odds
San Antonio Spurs: +9.5 (-110)
New York Knicks: -9.5 (-110)
Over: 226.5 (-110)
Under: 226.5 (-110)
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Why The Spurs Could Cover The Spread
San Antonio has a great chance to cover against a solid New York team thanks to their frisky offense. The Spurs rank just 23rd in scoring (111.6 PPG) but play at the eighth-fastest pace in the league (103.3 possessions per game). They do a great job sharing the ball as they assist at the eighth-highest (18.9%) and average the third-most assists per game (27 APG). The Knicks do have a strong defense, but they forced the sixth-fewest turnovers per game – potentially setting the Spurs up for an efficient offensive night.
The Spurs should feel encouraged by their prior performance against the Knicks. Although it was a home game, San Antonio handily took care of New York last week, leading by as many as 17 before eventually winning by seven. The Spurs predictably did a great job distributing the ball (25 assists) but the biggest takeaways were their strong rebounding and star play. They outrebounded New York 48-38 with center Jakob Poeltl leading the way with 12. The 7'1″ center has been solid all season, averaging 12.1 PPG, 9.3 RPG, and 1.1 blocks per game while shooting an efficient 65% from the field. While his playing time and production fluctuate from night to night, Poeltl has hauled in 10+ rebounds in each of his last three games.
While rebounding will be key in their ability to cover tonight, the biggest factor in whether or not they keep the game within 10 points is the play of forward Keldon Johnson. Johnson has been stellar this season as he's quietly averaging 21.5 PPG and 4.9 RPG while shooting 43% from the field and 35% from three. He was far and away their most important player during last week's win as he scored 30 points and nailed three three-pointers. With second-leading scorer Devin Vassell (19.4 PPG) out last week, the Spurs needed each of Johnson's 30 points. Vassell is questionable again tonight. While his insertion into the starting lineup would give San Antonio a huge boost, Spurs backers should be confident in the ability of Johnson to take on an expanded role if needed.
Why The Knicks Could Cover The Spread
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The Knicks have a good opportunity to cover the spread tonight in a revenge spot after last week's debacle. New York was pounded on the glass in their last matchup but the biggest issue was their scoring distribution. Forward Julius Randle and guard Immanuel Quickley combined for 77 of the team's 115 points. They attempted 54 of the team's 90 shots and while their big nights were certainly impressive, the rest of the team shot a paltry 33%. Thankfully, points guard Jalen Brunson will be back, and while forward Obi Toppin is listed as doubtful there is an outside chance he returns to action tonight.
Julius Randle is unlikely to repeat his 41-11-7 line from last week, but given how well he's played this season it wouldn't surprise anyone. Randle averages 24.2 PPG, 9.9 RPG, and 3.8 APG. He's shooting 47% from the field and 35% from three – although he's notably sunk at least four three-pointers in six straight games. He's coming off a monster 28-point, 16-rebound night in their win over Phoenix. Randle is in a good spot to carry the load yet again against San Antonio's last-ranked defense.
The return of point guard Jalen Brunson is far and away the biggest reason for optimism that they can cover the spread. After missing over a week, Brunson returned on Monday and didn't miss a beat. He scored 24 points and dished out six assists in the win while playing 39 minutes. His return should give Knicks backers confidence in their ability to cover tonight.
Final Spurs-Knicks Prediction & Pick
With Brunson back, I like the Knicks to cover a hefty spread and blow the Spurs out of MSG.
Final Spurs-Knicks Prediction & Pick: New York Knicks -9.5 (-110)
How To Watch Spurs vs. Knicks
TV: Bally SW, MSG
Stream: NBA League Pass
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET/ 4:30 p.m. PT
