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The Phoenix Suns will battle the Utah Jazz on Friday night. It's time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Suns-Jazz prediction and pick.
The Suns have nothing to play for here. Phoenix has already locked up the first seed in the Western Conference, guaranteeing themselves home-court advantage throughout the postseason regardless of what happens in this game. The Jazz, on the other hand, have a little bit more at stake. Utah remains a half-game ahead of the Denver Nuggets for the fifth seed, making this game a crucial one. The Nuggets end their season against the Los Angeles Lakers on Sunday, so it's safe to assume Denver will end the season with a victory. The Jazz need a win here to maintain their hold on the fifth seed.
Here are the Suns-Jazz NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Odds: Suns-Jazz Odds
Phoenix Suns: +2.5 (-110)
Utah Jazz: -2.5 (-110)
Over: 228 (-110)
Under: 228 (-110)
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Why The Suns Could Cover The Spread
These teams have already played each other three times, with the Suns winning two of those matchups. In both of those victories, Phoenix played without star center DeAndre Ayton and starting forward Jae Crowder. Now, the Suns are fully healthy and underdogs in this game. It's fair to wonder how much the Suns' starters will play in this game, but the fact that they aren't being rested indicates they should play close to their normal workload.
The Suns shouldn't be underdogs in this game. They're clearly the better team in this matchup, they're fully healthy, and they seem to be willing to play their starters a decent amount. Meanwhile, the Jazz have gone 3-6 in their last nine games, with losses to the Los Angeles Clippers and the Charlotte Hornets. The Suns have entered the game as an underdog only 12 times this year, and they've covered in eight of those contests. Expect that trend to continue here.
Why The Jazz Could Cover The Spread
The Utah offense should perform fairly well here. The Jazz have been one of the best offensive teams in the league by nearly every metric, including points per game, shooting percentage, effective field goal percentage, and shooting efficiency. The Suns have been great on defense this season, but the last time these teams played, Utah managed to score 118 points in a win. It helps that the Jazz have been particularly good on offense lately, scoring 121 points against a good Memphis Grizzlies defense and then dropping 137 points on the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Home court advantage will certainly play a part in this contest. Utah only has a 47% winning percentage when they play on the road, but that skyrockets all the way up to 72% when they play in their own arena. The Suns have also been slightly worse on the road, earning a 77% winning percentage away from home and an 80% winning percentage in Phoenix.
Another factor that can't be ignored is motivation. The Suns are literally playing for nothing in this game, as they've locked up the first seed already. Utah has so much to lose here, so they should be playing like this is a postseason contest while Phoenix is already looking ahead to the playoffs.
Final Suns-Jazz Prediction & Pick
It's strange to see Phoenix enter this game as the underdog. Lock in the Suns and consider a bet on the Phoenix money line.
Final Suns-Jazz Prediction & Pick: Phoenix Suns: +2.5 (-110)
