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The Phoenix Suns (16-9) visit the New Orleans Pelicans (16-8) on Friday. Action tips off at 8:40 pm ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Suns-Pelicans prediction and pick.
Phoenix has lost three of their last four games but still sits in second place in the Western Conference. The Suns are 14-11 against the spread while 54% of their games have gone under. New Orleans has vaulted into first place in the West thanks to five straight wins. The Pelicans are 13-11 against the spread while 50% of their games have gone over. This will be the second of four meetings between the conference foes. Phoenix took a 124-111 home victory in the first matchup.
Here are the Suns-Pelicans NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Suns-Pelicans Odds
Phoenix Suns: -1.5 (-110)
New Orleans Pelicans: +1.5 (-110)
Over: 228.5 (-110)
Under: 228.5 (-110)
Why The Suns Could Cover The Spread
Despite their recent rough stretch, Phoenix is still one of the most well-rounded teams in the league. They have a potent offense that ranks seventh in scoring and second in offensive rating. They've been just as impressive on defense, ranking eighth in points allowed and sixth in defensive rating. Phoenix rounds out their all-around team with strong rebounding metrics as they rank eighth in rebound differential and seventh in rebound rate. Notably, forwards Jae Crowder and Cam Johnson will again miss tonight's game.
A week ago Phoenix looked like one of the few juggernauts in the league but they've since lost three of their last four including an embarrassing blowout loss to Boston. That being said, the Suns are still favored on the road tonight, and for good reason. Phoenix has one of the best overall players in the league: guard Devin Booker. Booker has taken a step forward in each of his seven NBA seasons. This year, with point guard Chris Paul missing extended time, Booker has clearly cemented himself as the top dog in Phoenix. He's averaging 27.9 PPG, 4.9 RPG, and 5.8 APG while shooting an outstanding 48% from the field. He's been solid from beyond the arc as well, shooting 38% on over six attempts per game.
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Booker's strong play is a given at this point, but if the Suns want to cover tonight they will need center Deandre Ayton to dominate down load. He's coming off one of his worst games of the year – an eight-point, seven-rebound dud in their loss to the Celtics. He's been solid for the season, however, averaging 16.7 PPG and 9.5 RPG while shooting 62% from the field.
Why The Pelicans Could Cover The Spread
New Orleans has risen to the top of the West thanks to an incredible combination of offense, defense, and rebounding. The Pelicans rank fifth in scoring and sixth in offensive rating. They're somehow even better on defense where they rank sixth in points allowed and third in defensive rating. They've also been a top-five rebounding unit, ranking fourth in rebound differential and fifth in rebound rate. Notably, Brandon Ingram and Herb Jones have been ruled out tonight while Jose Alvarado is listed as questionable.
Despite being underdogs tonight, New Orleans should not be taken lightly. The Pelicans have elite metrics and feature one of the most dominant players in the league: Zion Williamson. Zion's production on the court has finally matched his hype off the court this season. While he plays just 32 minutes per game, he still manages to average 23.9 PPG, 7.2 RPG, and 4.3 APG. He's good for two STOCKs (steals plus blocks) a night and is one of the most efficient scorers in the league. His 59.6% from the field ranks second among 20 PPG scorers, trailing only reigning MVP Nikola Jokic. Zion has been playing especially well of late – scoring at least 25 points in four straight games and shooing over 50% in each game.
If the Pelicans are going to cover against one of the top teams in the league, they'll need guard CJ McCollum to right the ship after a string of poor outings. He's failed to surpass eight points in each of his last three games, shooting just 24% over that span. Even with those outlier games, McCollum still maintains solid season averages. He's scored 16.9 PPG and dished out 5.9 APG. While he's deferred to the Pelicans' elite forwards, McCollum will need to find his outside if they want to cover tonight. He found a good deal of success in their last matchup with Phoenix – scoring 17 points and dishing out nine assists.
Final Suns-Pelicans Prediction & Pick
In one of the biggest Western Conference matchups of the season, I like the first-place Pelicans to win tonight. Getting a point and a half at home is just the icing on the cake. Ride the home underdogs.
Final Suns-Pelicans Prediction & Pick: New Orleans Pelicans +1.5 (-110)
