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The Minnesota Timberwolves (4-3) take on the Phoenix Suns (5-1) on Tuesday. Tipoff is scheduled for 10 pm ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Timberwolves-Suns prediction and pick.
Minnesota has started strong this season with their 4-3 record. They've been slightly below average against the spread (ATS) sitting at 3-4 after a profitable 53% cover rate last season. Five of seven games have gone under this season – a flip from last year's 58% over rate.
Phoenix has picked up right where they left off last year with just one loss through six games. They've been nearly as good ATS, covering four of six games. The Suns have gone over in three games – mirroring last year's 50/50 split.
Phoenix took all three matchups between the two teams last season by three, 10, and nine points. Two of the three games eclipsed tonight's 227.5-point total.
Here are the Timberwolves-Suns NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Timberwolves-Suns Odds
Minnesota Timberwolves: +4 (-110)
Phoenix Suns: -4 (-110)
Over: 227 (-110)
Under: 227 (-110)
Why The Timberwolves Could Cover The Spread
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The Timberwolves have been one of the most-changed teams from a philosophical standpoint this year. The Wolves are exactly league-average in both scoring (15th) and points allowed (15th). They've surprisingly been below average in rebounding (21st in differential) and are below average in turnover differential (21st).
Despite being at or below league average in most team stats, the Timberwolves have a massive advantage in tonight's matchup in their frontcourt. 7'1″ center Rudy Gobert and 6'11” forward give the Timberwolves one of the largest pairs of starting big men in the league. Gobert (14.1 PPG and 14.7 RPG) and Towns (21.3 PPG and 8.0 RPG) have been stellar this season – although the traditionally smooth-shooting Towns hasn't quite heated up from beyond the arc yet (34%). That bodes well for Minnesota given Phoenix's recent injury to starting center DeAndre Ayton – something to keep in mind when making a Timberwolves-Suns prediction.
While Minnesota seemingly has the advantage in the frontcourt, it'll be up to their backcourt if they can cover the spread tonight. Both of Minnesota's guards have been excellent this year. Anthony Edwards (23 PPG) has served as the go-to scorer for the Wolves, while D'Angelo Russell (15.3 PPG and 6.0 APG) has continued to develop as the lead playmaker. They have a tall task in defending Phoenix's strong backcourt and this matchup will largely decide the outcome of the game.
Why The Suns Could Cover The Spread
Phoenix is a regular-season unit. After getting the Western Conference's top seed last year, the Suns have picked up right where they left off. The Suns have been arguably the most well-rounded team in the league thus far, placing second in scoring and third in points allowed. They've been an above-average rebounding team (12th in rebounding margin) but have uncharacteristically given the ball away a fair amount (25th in turnover margin). However, in tonight's game, there is one specific matchup that gives them a huge advantage: Chris Paul vs. Rudy Gobert.
Much has been made of Rudy Gobert's limitations as a basketball player. At his best the's a defensive force and monster in the paint. At his worst, well, he plays Chris Paul. Paul holds a 16-4 lifetime record against Gobert and his teams have limited the towering center to just 10.9 points and 9.5 rebounds per game in their matchups. Paul is aging, sure, and isn't nearly the athlete he used to be. The Suns have been careful with his workload this season, limiting him to just 32 minutes per game. While his scoring has dropped to a career-low 9.3 PPG, his 10.8 APG rank first in the league.
Paul's (and backcourt mate Devin Booker's) playmaking is where Phoenix can expose Gobert. The Wolves have other options, but this early into the season it's doubtful they'll outright bench Gobert. That bodes well for Phoenix as Paul and Booker will have him in countless pick-and-rolls on the perimeter. If Booker can hold down the scoring load as he has all season (29.3 PPG), Paul should be able to orchestrate the offense around Gobert's defensive limitations.
No matter what Paul does on offense though, the Suns will need a big man to step up and defend the Wolves' twin towers down low. NBA journeyman Bismack Biyombo performed well in his first start of the season replacing DeAndre Ayton. Although it was against a Rockets team lacking the same level of big men as the Wolves, Biyombo played his role well. Despite just five points, Biyombo corralled five rebounds and blocked five shots. The Suns will need more of the same if they're going to hold off a talented Wolves team.
Final Timberwolves-Suns Prediction & Pick
Chris Paul vs. Rudy Gobert? Easy. Hamer the Suns.
Final Timberwolves-Suns Prediction & Pick: Phoenix Suns -4 (-110)
