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The Atlanta Hawks will take on the Miami Heat on Tuesday in Game 5 of their first-round matchup. It's time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Hawks-Heat prediction and pick.
Unsurprisingly, the Heat have taken control of this series. Miami currently holds a 3-1 lead over the Hawks, making this contest an elimination game. Atlanta can't feel comfortable as they head into this contest for a variety of reasons. The Heat have dominated the series, scoring three easy wins and one tightly contested loss. The prospect of coming back from a 3-1 deficit against Miami is also a daunting one.
Regardless of the series record, this game should be an entertaining one. Let's get into the pick.
Here are the Hawks-Heat NBA playoffs odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Playoffs Odds: Hawks-Heat Odds
Atlanta Hawks: +7 (-110)
Miami Heat: -7 (-110)
Over: 217 (-110)
Under: 217 (-110)
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Why The Hawks Could Cover The Spread
Atlanta's offense has to come alive at some point in this series. The Hawks were one of the better offensive teams in the NBA throughout the regular season, scoring 113 points per game on 47% shooting from the field. Point guard Trae Young is one of the best scorers in basketball, but he's been held to single-digit points in two out of four games this series. While the Miami defense is great, it's hard to see them keeping up this level of play. Expect the Hawks to come out a little bit stronger on the offensive end in this one.
Helping Atlanta is the fact that Miami won't be fully healthy. Starting point guard Kyle Lowry has already been ruled out because of a hamstring injury, and forwards PJ Tucker and Caleb Martin are both questionable for this contest. Lowry is a huge contributor on both sides of the floor for the Heat, and both forwards are crucial defensive pieces for head coach Erik Spoelstra. Even if one misses this game, the Hawks should be able to capitalize on playing a weaker defensive team overall.
Why The Heat Could Cover The Spread
While the Heat are known for their defensive capabilities, they should have plenty of success on offense in Game 5. The Hawks have long been one of the worst offensive teams in the NBA, as they gave up 112 points per game while allowing their opponents some of the best offensive numbers in the league. The Heat haven't had much trouble scoring on Atlanta this series, as they've put up 110 points or more in every single game they've played. Keep in mind that three of those contests were blowouts, so Miami certainly could have put up more scoring if they had actually needed to.
The Hawks have been terrible against the spread in games like this one. Over the course of the season, Atlanta went 11-24 ATS as underdogs, while going 15-29 whenever they played as the away team. Those are two of the worst numbers in the entire NBA. Meanwhile, Miami was fantastic at home this season, earning a 29-12 record in FTX Arena. The venue of this game clearly favors the Heat, and it will show in this contest.
Final Hawks-Heat Prediction & Pick
There's no reason to pick anything but the Heat here. They've won three out of four games with ease, and this isn't a big spread. Lock in Miami.
Final Pick: Miami Heat: -7 (-110)
