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The Miami Heat will take on the Philadelphia 76ers on Thursday night. It's time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Heat-76ers prediction and pick.
This series has been one of the most entertaining ones of the postseason. The Heat came out of the gates on fire, winning Games 1 and 2 with ease. However, the Sixers responded by winning two consecutive games to even up the series. Miami won in blowout fashion in a crucial Game 5, making this contest the first time that Philadelphia has faced elimination in this postseason. With so much on the line, this is bound to be an entertaining game. Let's cut to the chase and get into the pick.
Here are the Heat-76ers NBA Playoffs odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Playoffs Odds: Heat-76ers Game 6 Odds
Miami Heat: +2 (-110)
Philadelphia 76ers: -2 (-110)
Over: 206.5 (-110)
Under: 206.5 (-110)
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Why The Heat Could Cover The Spread
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Miami's defense has looked fantastic throughout this series. They've only allowed more than 103 points in one game, and even then they only gave up 108. The Heat just held Philly to 36% shooting from the field and 28% shooting from three-point range in Game 5, showing just how dominant they can be. These performances aren't just flukes either, as Miami maintained this level of fantastic play in the first round against the Atlanta Hawks. Atlanta only scored more than 105 points once despite sporting a high-powered offense. Expect the Heat to continue their consistent defensive ways in this contest.
In Miami's only two losses, they shot uncharacteristically poorly from the field. The Heat shot a miserable 35% from the field and 23% from three in Game 3, two downright awful percentages. Game 4 was slightly better but still bad. Miami shot 46% from the field and 20% from three in that game. The Sixers are good on defense, but they aren't good enough to hold the Heat to those numbers consistently. Philadelphia has only won games in which the Heat have been terrible offensively, and that's just not a reliable way to consistently notch victories.
Why The 76ers Could Cover The Spread
A key part of Miami's success in Game 5 was stopping center Joel Embiid. Embiid was held to only 17 points in the contest, something that shouldn't be replicated for the rest of the series. He played well in both Philadelphia wins, and he should rebound from his poor Game 5 performance. A good performance from Embiid should lead to a decent offensive day from the 76ers, which could be enough to earn them a cover.
The importance of home-court advantage cannot be understated here. The home team has won every single game in this series, often by a hefty margin. The Heat are yet to lose at home this postseason, so getting them out of FTX Arena is huge. Both of these teams earned better home records than away records during the regular season, and that trend hasn't changed during the playoffs. There's no reason to think this game will be any different.
Final Heat-76ers Game 6 Prediction & Pick
Neither side of this spread is particularly appealing. Instead, the under is the best pick on the board. The only consistent factor in this series has been strong defense on both sides, so the under should hit once again here.
Final Heat-76ers Game 6 Prediction & Pick: Under: 206.5 (-110)
